MLB Computer Projects Houston Astros to Win Another vs Brewers

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Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Rays are favored. The projected score is TB 4.4 and OAK 4.1, and Tampa Bay is winning 58% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Rays have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-3 record. They have the large edge in units at +275 to -276 units. The average moneyline for the Rays was -51 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Rays averaged 4 runs per game and the Athletics 3.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oakland Athletics----4.1--42%3.0 (3 Wins)
Tampa Bay Rays----4.4--58%4.0 (6 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Indians

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Indians over the Reds. The projected score is CLE 5.4 and CIN 4.3, with Cleveland winning 66% of the time. The Indians are -130 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Indians have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-4 record and they have the significant edge in profit at +8 to -48 units. In these games the Indians averaged 6.4 runs per game and the Reds 4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Reds+1154.64.345%34%4.0 (4 Wins)
Cleveland Indians-1304.95.455%66%6.4 (7 Wins)

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies

The Cubs are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Cubs 5.5 and Rockies 4.8, with Chicago winning 55% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Cubs is -143 which translates to 59 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Cubs based on how the moneyline is moving. The Rockies have the recent head-to-head edge going 7-5 and they have the large edge in profit at +437 to -341 units. The average moneyline for the Rockies was +97 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Rockies averaged 5.4 runs per game and the Cubs 4.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o12.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Cubs-1436.55.557%55%4.8 (5 Wins)
Colorado Rockies+1286.04.843%45%5.4 (7 Wins)

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is BOS 5.4 and TEX 5.3, and Boston is winning 54% of simulations. The Red Sox are -145 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Rangers based on how the moneyline is moving. The Red Sox have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-3 record but both teams are down overall playing each other (Rangers -86 units, Red Sox -11 units). In these games the Red Sox averaged 5.2 runs per game and the Rangers 4.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Texas Rangers+1254.55.343%46%4.1 (3 Wins)
Boston Red Sox-1455.05.457%54%5.2 (6 Wins)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles

The odds have this as an even matchup, but the sims are solidly on the Orioles. The projected score is BAL 5.1 and TOR 4.6, and Baltimore is winning 59% of simulations. The moneylines for the game are Orioles -110 and Blue Jays -110. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Blue Jays going 15-8 and they have the large edge in profit at +276 to -567 units. The Blue Jays were -123 favorites on average. In these games, the Blue Jays averaged 4.8 and the Orioles 3.7 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o11VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Blue Jays-1105.44.650%41%4.8 (15 Wins)
Baltimore Orioles-1105.65.150%59%3.7 (8 Wins)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Phillies. The projected score is PHI 4.9 and ARI 4.8, with Philadelphia winning 53% of the time. The moneyline for the Phillies is -155 which translates to 61 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Phillies based on how the moneyline is moving. The D-Backs are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. They have the large edge in units at +148 to -189. The average moneyline for the D-Backs was -44 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the D-Backs averaged 5.9 and the Phillies 4.1 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Diamondbacks+1254.54.842%47%5.9 (5 Wins)
Philadelphia Phillies-1555.04.958%53%4.1 (3 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins

The Cardinals are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Cardinals 4.6 and Marlins 3, with St. Louis being given a 69% chance of winning. At -161 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Cardinals a 62 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Cardinals are up in this matchup recently going 5-3, but neither team is down overall. The Cardinals are +44 and the Marlins are +11 against each other. The Cardinals were -169 favorites on average. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 4.1 and the Marlins 3.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals-1614.34.660%69%4.1 (5 Wins)
Miami Marlins+1403.73.040%31%3.2 (3 Wins)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves

The current simulations favor the Braves, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is ATL 6.8 and PIT 3.7, with Atlanta winning 85% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Braves going 8-3 and they have the large edge in profit at +321 to -468 units. In these games the Braves averaged 5.3 runs per game and the Pirates 3.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates----3.7--15%3.5 (3 Wins)
Atlanta Braves----6.8--85%5.3 (8 Wins)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Astros to win the game. The projected score is HOU 4.6 and MIL 3.7, and Houston is winning 65% of simulations. The moneyline for the Astros is -130 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Brewers since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Brewers+1103.63.746%35%8.0 (0 Wins)
Houston Astros-1303.94.654%65%10.0 (1 Win)

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins

The Twins are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is MIN 6.5 and SEA 4.3, with Minnesota winning 76% of the time. The Twins are -237 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 70 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Mariners to win. In their last 11 matchups the Mariners are 6-5. They have the large edge in units at +77 to -199. The average moneyline for the Twins was -62 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Twins averaged 5.4 runs per game and the Mariners 4.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Mariners+1814.24.334%24%4.2 (6 Wins)
Minnesota Twins-2375.36.566%76%5.4 (5 Wins)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals

The odds and our simulations favor the Royals over the Tigers, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is KC 5.3 and DET 4.9, and Kansas City is winning 58% of simulations. The Royals are -149 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 13 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Tigers are at -116 and the Royals are -101 against each other. In these games the Royals averaged 4.5 runs per game and the Tigers 4.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Tigers+1324.24.942%42%4.3 (13 Wins)
Kansas City Royals-1494.85.358%58%4.5 (13 Wins)

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants

The Padres are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Padres 4.8 and Giants 3.7, with San Diego winning 61% of the latest sims. At -135 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Padres a 57 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Giants to win. Head-to-head, the Giants are 14-13 and they have the large edge in profit at +29 to -198 units. The average moneyline for the Padres was -27 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Padres averaged 3.7 and the Giants 3.5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Diego Padres-1353.94.855%61%3.7 (13 Wins)
San Francisco Giants+1103.63.745%39%3.5 (14 Wins)