MLB World Series and League Futures: Dodgers at the Top of the NL

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There is a small 1.6% gap between the Astros and the Yankees. The New York Yankees at 28% trail the Houston Astros at 29.6%. The gap seems to be widening. The Yankees chances are down from 32.5 percent. There is a 2.35 difference in projected win total between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the AL, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Houston Astros99.290.8%96.4%2/1 (33.3%)29.6%
New York Yankees100.185.0%97.1%3/2 (40%)28.0%
Minnesota Twins96.870.2%90.7%4/1 (20%)13.7%
Cleveland Indians93.629.8%66.9%10/1 (9.1%)8.7%
Tampa Bay Rays93.411.2%65.9%12/1 (7.7%)8.3%
Oakland Athletics91.08.6%44.8%25/1 (3.8%)6.5%
Boston Red Sox89.83.8%33.1%15/1 (6.2%)5.0%
Texas Rangers82.80.5%4.3%30/1 (3.2%)0.1%
Los Angeles Angels80.10.1%0.8%50/1 (2%)--
Chicago White Sox73.10.1%0.1%100/1 (1%)--
Seattle Mariners70.40.1%0.1%1500/1 (0.1%)--
Toronto Blue Jays63.60.1%0.1%5000/1--
Kansas City Royals62.80.1%0.1%10000/1--
Baltimore Orioles53.60.1%0.1%10000/1--
Detroit Tigers53.50.1%0.1%10000/1--

There is a huge 34% gap between NL leaders. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 46 percent chance of winning the NL and the Chicago Cubs are at 12%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Cubs chances are down from 20.6 percent. While 2.52 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the NL with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers105.6100.0%100.0%6/5 (45.5%)46.0%
Chicago Cubs86.949.3%67.4%7/1 (12.5%)12.0%
Atlanta Braves90.359.6%90.4%6/1 (14.3%)11.4%
Washington Nationals88.534.0%75.9%9/1 (10%)11.4%
Milwaukee Brewers85.536.3%56.3%7/1 (12.5%)10.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks83.00.1%30.5%50/1 (2%)3.1%
Philadelphia Phillies82.76.1%32.1%12/1 (7.7%)2.9%
St Louis Cardinals80.58.9%18.7%10/1 (9.1%)1.2%
Colorado Rockies78.40.1%8.1%30/1 (3.2%)0.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates78.13.9%8.5%30/1 (3.2%)0.5%
San Diego Padres77.50.1%6.2%50/1 (2%)0.4%
Cincinnati Reds75.71.4%3.8%30/1 (3.2%)0.3%
New York Mets75.20.2%1.6%250/1 (0.4%)0.1%
San Francisco Giants71.70.1%0.4%250/1 (0.4%)--
Miami Marlins66.50.1%0.1%5000/1--

At this point, the number of contenders exceeds the number of playoff teams. There are 12 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Yankees have a 15 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 14 percentage points behind the Dodgers. The separation between the team with the #10 highest chances vs the #12 highest is 0.9 percentage points.

WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Los Angeles Dodgers3/125.0%29.4%UP
New York Yankees7/222.2%15.2%--
Houston Astros4/120.0%15.1%DOWN
Chicago Cubs16/15.9%5.2%DOWN
Minnesota Twins8/111.1%5.0%DOWN
Atlanta Braves14/16.7%4.9%DOWN
Washington Nationals18/15.3%4.7%UP
Milwaukee Brewers16/15.9%4.3%DOWN
Cleveland Indians20/14.8%3.7%UP
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%3.6%DOWN
Oakland Athletics50/12.0%2.8%DOWN
Boston Red Sox30/13.2%2.6%DOWN
Arizona Diamondbacks100/11.0%1.2%DOWN
Philadelphia Phillies25/13.8%1.0%DOWN