Red Sox Have a 5% Chance of Winning It All

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Red Sox are World Series contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.6% chance of winning it all. On 3/27 they had an 11.1% chance before dropping to 1.5% on 4/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 4.7%. They have an 8.5% chance of winning their division. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #7 in the conference) and have a 58% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the AL (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they make the World Series 9% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #16 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #5 Easiest

Red Sox's Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%AL ChampMLB Champ
Jun 269258.4%9%4.7%
Mar 27101.694.9%19.5%11.1%
Difference-9.6-36.5%-10.5%-6.4%

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 44-37 Red Sox 'should have' 48 wins. They have 32 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 19 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have come up especially short at home. Their 20-19- home record is -11% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (14-8, 64%) is better than their expected 60% win percentage. The Red Sox are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.1% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#4 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 4/24.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.68 which ranks #5 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #7. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #6 ranked team among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +2 (#2 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 81 Games5.4 (#4)0.264 (#3)0.630 (#4)
Road5.4 (#6)0.263 (#4)0.613 (#7)
Home5.4 (#2)0.266 (#2)0.651 (#2)
Last 13 Games6.2 (#3)0.299 (#1)0.727 (#3)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.7 (#7)0.243 (#6)0.592 (#6)
Road4.4 (#4)0.242 (#40.606 (#6)
Home5.0 (#8)0.244 (#7)0.578 (#5)
Last 13 Games4.2 (#4)0.248 (#6)0.601 (#3)

NEXT 8 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 8 games is generally good. They have 7 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUN 26
LIKELY WIN
77% CHW
--
JUN 29
CLOSE GAME
48% NYY
--
JUN 30
CLOSE GAME
51% NYY
--
JUL 2
LIKELY WIN
71% @TOR
429 miles
JUL 3
LIKELY WIN
62% @TOR
-- miles
JUL 4
LIKELY WIN
61% @TOR
-- miles
JUL 5
LIKELY WIN
68% @DET
206 miles
JUL 6
LIKELY WIN
68% @DET
-- miles
JUL 7
LIKELY WIN
64% @DET
-- miles
JUL 12
CLOSE GAME
51% LAD
--

The most likely scenario over the next 8 games is a record of 5-3 (29% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 13.7%. Their chances of winning their next 8 are 2.2%. At #7 in the league, they are fighting with the Rangers for positioning. Their projected wins (5.06) over the next 8 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Athletics by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Athletics. There is only a -0.46 advantage in projected wins over their next 8 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Red Sox are the 10th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Red Sox are playing 9 games, traveling 6240 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #21 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Red Sox's next game. They are -364 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Xander Bogaerts3.1100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)
Mookie Betts3.5100% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #5)
Chris Sale5.198% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #3)
Rafael Devers2.899% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #8)
J.D. Martinez3.1100% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #6)
David Price4.397% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #24)