Rafael Devers Hamstring Tightens Up

SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE

Rafael Devers was removed early from yesterday’s game after he felt hamstring tightness in the fifth inning. He does not expect it to be serious, and thinks he could be available to play in their next game tomorrow. Eduardo Nunez took over for him at third base, I would keep an eye on Devers to see if he hits the IL because that would be the only reason to look at Nunez in fantasy.

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 8.1 DraftKings pts Rafael Devers is the #11 ranked third baseman. He is the #2 highest priced third baseman ($5300). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $4.4K. Instead of Devers consider these better options at lower salaries: Justin Turner (8.3 FP), Nolan Arenado (9.4 FP), Manny Machado (9.2 FP), Eugenio Suarez (8.6 FP), and Jose Ramirez (8.6 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.7 FPs, a value reached in 70 of 210 games (33%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 38%.

  • 6/26 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: BOS 5.4 (#6 Most Today) vs CHW 3.6 (#28 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 8.09 Fantasy Points (#10), 3.72 plate appearances (#18), 0.293 BA (#10), 0.867 OPS (#10), 0.17 HR (#13), 0.63 RBI (#9), 0.61 runs (#8), 0.08 stolen bases (#3),

FANDUEL VALUE: Projected for 10.8 FanDuel pts Rafael Devers is the #9 ranked third baseman. He is the #8 highest priced third baseman ($3700). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $3.6K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Matt Chapman is also priced at $3700 and is a better option at this price. Instead of Devers consider these better options at lower salaries: Eugenio Suarez (11.4 FP), Jose Ramirez (11.5 FP), and Yulieski Gurriel (11 FP). He is projected for more points than 3 higher priced options: Eduardo Escobar (7.3 FP), DJ LeMahieu (10.5 FP), and Hunter Dozier (9.4 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 11.2 FPs, a value reached in 82 of 210 games (39%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 42%.

Devers is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Rafael Devers is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #8 while his projection (rest of week 14) rank is #26. Week 15 third basemen comparisons show Tommy La Stella (19.2 FP) is projected for more points and is starting in fewer leagues. Josh Donaldson (14.9 FP), Eduardo Escobar (10.3 FP), Nolan Arenado (18.6 FP), Jose Ramirez (17.3 FP), and Alex Bregman (18.2 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Devers but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 83% of leagues he is expected to produce 17.3 fantasy points (WK 15). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #11 third baseman of week 15. He is projected to be better than that (the #5 third baseman). Even though his per game projected FP average is not better than normal, he will benefit from playing a projected 6 games.

Lower Start%R. Devers WK 15Higher Start%
T. La Stella (19 FP)19 FPJ. Donaldson (15 FP)
 
#11 Third BaseE. Escobar (10 FP)
 
 
N. Arenado (19 FP)
 
 
J. Ramirez (17 FP)
 
 
A. Bregman (18 FP)

He is projected for 18.8 fantasy points in week 15 (#5 3B) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
18.85 (#5) 
Avg0.314 (#2) 
 
OPS 
0.827 (#5) 
Home Runs 
1 (#13) 
Runs 
3.63 (#6) 
RBI 
3.71 (#5) 
Stolen Bases0.52 (#2) 
 

  • Based on 6/26 start percentages, Rafael Devers is valued behind Riley and above Turner but the projections rank Rafael Devers over Riley in week 15.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    3.4 FP @TOR2.7 FP @TOR2.9 FP @TOR3.3 FP @DET3.7 FP @DET2.9 FP @DET

    Rafael Devers last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/25 vs CHW10 FP, 31 FD, 24 DK4-4, 1 RBI, 2 R
    6/24 vs CHW4 FP, 12 FD, 9 DK1-4, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/22 vs TOR0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    6/21 vs TOR2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-1, 1 RBI
    6/19 @MIN3 FP, 9 FD, 8 DK2-3, 1 R

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    The latest projections exactly match what is expected of Rafael Devers, at least in terms of position ranking. Ranking by ownership percentage (99%), Rafael Devers is expected to be the #8 third baseman for the rest of the season. Projections also rank him #8. He is projected for 227 fantasy points in 75 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#11) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Rafael Devers behind Chapman and above Guerrero Jr. and the projections agree.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    227 (#8) 
    Avg 
    0.288 (#8) 
    OPS 
    0.832 (#10) 
    Home Runs 
    12 (#16) 
    Runs 
    47 (#7) 
    RBI 
    45 (#7) 
    Stolen Bases6 (#2) 
     
    Strikeouts 
     
    63 (#33)

    If stolen bases are important to your league, his value is higher.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 19.1 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 2 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL19.1 FP per Week42
    Week 112.5 (4 games 3.1 per game)
    Week 26 (7 games 0.9 per game)-13.1
    Week 312 (5 games 2.4 per game)
    Week 414 (6 games 2.3 per game)
    Week 515 (6 games 2.5 per game)
    Week 636.5 (7 games 5.2 per game)+17.4
    Week 730 (6 games 5 per game)+10.9
    Week 86 (5 games 1.2 per game)-13.1
    Week 942.5 (6 games 7.1 per game)+23.4
    Week 1014.5 (6 games 2.4 per game)
    Week 1122.5 (6 games 3.8 per game)
    Week 1230 (7 games 4.3 per game)+10.9
    Week 1313 (5 games 2.6 per game)
    Week 1413.5 (2 games 6.8 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 12.4 points and on DraftKings it was 10 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 19 and 27.7 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All12.4 ($3.4K)20 G, 31 B10 ($4.4K)15 G, 21 B
    6/25 CHW30.9 ($3.6K)+18.524 ($5.4K)+14
    6/24 CHW12.2 ($3.5K)--9 ($4.6K)--
    6/22 TOR0--0--
    6/21 TOR6.5--5--
    6/19 @MIN9.2 ($3.9K)--8 ($4.4K)--
    6/18 @MIN28.2 ($4K)+15.824 ($4.8K)+14
    6/17 @MIN0 ($3.9K)-12.40 ($4.4K)-10
    6/16 @BAL24.9 ($3.9K)+12.519 ($5.1K)+9
    6/15 @BAL12.4 ($3.9K)--10--
    6/14 @BAL12 ($3.9K)--11 ($5K)--
    6/13 TEX18.7--14--
    6/12 TEX12.5 ($3.8K)--12 ($4.1K)--
    6/11 TEX16 ($3.9K)--12 ($5.1K)--
    6/10 TEX0 ($3.9K)-12.40 ($4.3K)-10
    6/8 TB0 ($4.1K)-12.40-10
    6/8 TB0 ($4.1K)-12.40-10
    6/7 TB0 ($4.1K)-12.40 ($5.1K)-10
    6/6 @KC19.2 ($3.9K)+6.813--
    6/5 @KC44.1 ($3.9K)+31.730 ($5.3K)+20
    6/4 @KC22.4 ($3.7K)+1015 ($5K)--
    6/2 @NYY9.7 ($3.8K)--7--
    6/1 @NYY0 ($3.9K)-12.40 ($5K)-10
    5/31 @NYY18.7 ($3.9K)+6.314 ($4.9K)--
    5/29 CLE3 ($4K)-9.43 ($5K)-7
    5/28 CLE15.2 ($4K)--13 ($5.6K)--
    5/27 CLE12.7--9--
    5/26 @HOU27.7 ($3.8K)+15.320 ($4.2K)+10
    5/25 @HOU15.2 ($4K)--13 ($4.5K)--
    5/23 @TOR22.4 ($3.5K)+1016 ($5K)+6
    5/22 @TOR18.7 ($3.3K)+6.314 ($4.9K)--
    5/21 @TOR24.7 ($3.1K)+12.319 ($4.3K)+9
    5/20 @TOR40.9 ($3.2K)+28.529+19
    5/19 HOU3 ($3.3K)-9.43 ($4.3K)-7
    5/18 HOU0 ($3.4K)-12.40 ($4.7K)-10
    5/17 HOU0 ($3.3K)-12.40 ($4.2K)-10
    5/15 COL3 ($3.5K)-9.42 ($4.5K)-8
    5/14 COL21.9 ($3.5K)+9.516 ($4.8K)+6
    5/12 SEA21.9 ($3.4K)+9.517 ($4.5K)+7
    5/11 SEA28.2 ($3.4K)+15.820 ($4.5K)+10
    5/10 SEA38.2 ($3.3K)+25.828 ($4.3K)+18
    5/8 @BAL6 ($3.5K)-6.48 ($4.8K)--
    5/7 @BAL6 ($3.7K)-6.45 ($4.7K)-5
    5/6 @BAL0 ($3.7K)-12.40 ($4.9K)-10
    5/5 @CHW15.4 ($3.5K)--12 ($4.4K)--
    5/4 @CHW21.9 ($3.2K)+9.516 ($4.1K)+6
    5/3 @CHW31.9 ($3.4K)+19.523 ($4.2K)+13
    5/2 @CHW10 ($3.3K)--6 ($4.4K)--
    5/1 OAK12.4 ($3.3K)--10 ($4.1K)--
    4/30 OAK9.5 ($3.1K)--7 ($4.1K)--
    4/29 OAK24.4 ($3.2K)+1217 ($4K)+7
    4/28 TB6 ($3.1K)-6.46 ($3.8K)--
    4/27 TB6 ($3.2K)-6.45 ($3.8K)-5
    4/25 DET16 ($2.8K)--12 ($3.8K)--
    4/24 DET16.2 ($3K)--13 ($4.2K)--
    4/23 DET3 ($3K)-9.42 ($4.1K)-8
    4/23 DET3 ($3K)-9.43 ($4.1K)-7
    4/21 @TB18.2 ($2.8K)--14 ($3.4K)--
    4/20 @TB6 ($2.8K)-6.45 ($3.5K)-5
    4/19 @TB12.7 ($2.8K)--9 ($3.7K)--
    4/17 @NYY12 ($3K)--9--
    4/16 @NYY3 ($3.1K)-9.42-8
    4/15 BAL6 ($3.4K)-6.45-5
    4/14 BAL0 ($3K)-12.40 ($4.3K)-10
    4/13 BAL12.4 ($3.5K)--9--
    4/12 BAL0 ($3.1K)-12.40 ($4.2K)-10
    4/11 TOR22.2 ($3.1K)+9.816 ($3.9K)+6
    4/9 TOR6 ($3.2K)-6.46--
    4/7 @ARI3 ($3.5K)-9.42-8
    4/6 @ARI9.2 ($3.2K)--7 ($4.5K)--
    4/5 @ARI6.2 ($2.9K)-6.25 ($4.4K)-5
    4/4 @OAK0 ($3K)-12.40-10
    4/3 @OAK3.2 ($3.3K)-9.22 ($4.1K)-8
    4/2 @OAK3 ($3.4K)-9.43 ($4.1K)-7
    4/1 @OAK3 ($3.1K)-9.42 ($4.5K)-8
    3/31 @SEA15.4 ($3K)--12--
    3/30 @SEA18.2 ($3.1K)--13 ($3.8K)--
    3/29 @SEA12.2 ($3K)--9 ($4K)--
    3/28 @SEA3 ($3.1K)-9.43-7