Chavis FanDuel Projection Provides Play and Fade Advice

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 8.1 FanDuel pts Michael Chavis is the #35 ranked C/1Bs. At $3100 he is expected to be the #17 C/1Bs. Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Chavis is worth $2.8K. There are 4 other options at $3100 (Daniel Murphy, Joc Pederson, Jose Abreu, Mitch Garver) and Chavis is ranked #4 among the 5. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Miguel Cabrera (9.4 FP), Robinson Chirinos (10 FP), Joey Votto (11 FP), Wilson Ramos (9 FP), and Buster Posey (8.1 FP). He is projected for more points than 2 higher priced options: C.J. Cron (6.7 FP) and Garrett Cooper (6.6 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 8.9 FPs, a value reached in 31 of 60 games (52%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 45%.

  • 6/26 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: BOS 5.4 (#6 Most Today) vs CHW 3.6 (#28 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 8.07 Fantasy Points (#34), 3.05 plate appearances (#44), 0.257 BA (#52), 0.802 OPS (#41), 0.14 HR (#31), 0.47 RBI (#30), 0.44 runs (#28), 0.03 stolen bases (#6),
Lower SalaryM. ChavisHigher Salary
M. Cabrera (9 FP)8 FPC. Cron (7 FP)
R. Chirinos (10 FP)#17 Catcher/First BaseG. Cooper (7 FP)
J. Votto (11 FP) 
 
W. Ramos (9 FP) 
 
B. Posey (8 FP) 
 

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Projected for 6 DraftKings pts Michael Chavis is the #38 ranked first basemen. He is the #21 highest priced first basemen ($4400). Based on the projection, Chavis is worth $3.4K. There are 2 other options at $4400 (Luke Voit, Garrett Cooper) and Chavis is ranked #2 among the 3. Instead of Chavis consider these better options at lower salaries: Miguel Cabrera (7.1 FP), Joey Votto (8.3 FP), Daniel Murphy (8.1 FP), Gerardo Parra (6.8 FP), and Eric Hosmer (9.3 FP). He is projected for more points than 2 higher priced options: Howie Kendrick (5.7 FP) and Christian Walker (3.9 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 7.8 FPs, a value reached in 23 of 60 games (38%). The combined 'cover percentage' for first basemen expected to start is 36%.

Chavis is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Michael Chavis is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #16 while his projection (rest of week 14) rank is #35. When compared to other third basemen in week 15 instead of Chavis consider these better options at lower start percentages: Maikel Franco (15.4 FP), Travis Shaw (15 FP), and Yandy Diaz (17.3 FP). He is projected for more points than 2 other third basemen starting in more leagues: Eduardo Escobar (10.3 FP) and Austin Riley (13.1 FP). Starting in 46% of leagues he is expected to produce 14.9 fantasy points (WK 15). Week 15 market expectations match his projection. He is expected to be the #16 third baseman (projected to be #17).

Lower Start%M. Chavis WK 15Higher Start%
M. Franco (15 FP)14 FPE. Escobar (10 FP)
T. Shaw (15 FP)#16 Third BaseA. Riley (13 FP)
Y. Diaz (17 FP) 
 

He is projected for 14 fantasy points in week 15 (#17 3B) in 5 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
13.95 (#17) 
Avg 
0.272 (#16) 
OPS 
0.721 (#19) 
Home Runs 
0.89 (#16) 
Runs 
2.77 (#17) 
RBI 
2.91 (#17) 
Stolen Bases0.21 (#6) 
 

  • Based on 6/26 start percentages, Michael Chavis is valued behind Suarez and above Sano and the projections agree for this week.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    2.5 FP @TOR1.9 FP @TOR2.2 FP @TOR2.4 FP @DET2.7 FP @DET2.1 FP @DET

    Michael Chavis last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/25 vs CHW1 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-4, 1 R
    6/24 vs CHW4 FP, 16 FD, 11 DK1-3, 1 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/23 vs TOR-2 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4
    6/22 vs TOR2 FP, 10 FD, 7 DK1-4, 1 RBI, 1 R
    6/21 vs TOR0 FP, 6 FD, 6 DK2-5

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Both the market and projections have virtually the same expectations for Michael Chavis. As of 6/26, Michael Chavis is the #16 ranked third baseman based on ownership percentage (76%). Projections rank him #17. He is projected for 193 fantasy points in 68 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#19) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Michael Chavis behind La Stella and above Diaz but the projections rank Diaz over Michael Chavis.

    Lower Own%M. Chavis ROSHigher Own%
    E. Longoria (194 FP)193 FPE. Escobar (180 FP)
    M. Franco (207 FP)#16 Third BaseA. Riley (180 FP)
    Y. Diaz (206 FP) 
     
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    193 (#17) 
    Avg 
    0.274 (#14) 
    OPS 
    0.823 (#12) 
    Home Runs 
    13 (#11) 
    Runs 
    38 (#15) 
    RBI 
    41 (#11) 
    Stolen Bases3 (#6) 
     
    Strikeouts 
     
    70 (#39)

    If stolen bases are important to your league, his value is higher.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 14.4 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 3 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL14.4 FP per Week34
    Week 42.5 (2 games 1.2 per game)-11.9
    Week 528 (6 games 4.7 per game)+13.6
    Week 637.5 (7 games 5.4 per game)+23.1
    Week 79.5 (5 games 1.9 per game)
    Week 815.5 (5 games 3.1 per game)
    Week 917 (7 games 2.4 per game)
    Week 109.5 (6 games 1.6 per game)
    Week 112 (7 games 0.3 per game)-12.4
    Week 1227.5 (7 games 3.9 per game)+13.1
    Week 133.5 (6 games 0.6 per game)-10.9
    Week 145.5 (2 games 2.8 per game)-8.9

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 10.5 FD points and 7.7 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 16 and on FanDuel it was 22.2 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All10.5 ($3.4K)15 G, 21 B7.7 ($4.5K)12 G, 20 B
    6/25 CHW6.2 ($3.2K)--5 ($4.6K)--
    6/24 CHW15.7 ($3.2K)--11 ($3.9K)--
    6/23 TOR0 ($3.2K)-10.50 ($4.5K)-7.7
    6/22 TOR9.7 ($3.3K)--7 ($4.8K)--
    6/21 TOR6 ($3.3K)--6 ($4.7K)--
    6/19 @MIN13 ($3.3K)--10 ($4.3K)--
    6/18 @MIN3 ($3.4K)-7.53 ($4.7K)-4.7
    6/17 @MIN3 ($3.5K)-7.53 ($4.3K)-4.7
    6/16 @BAL12.4 ($3.5K)--10 ($4.7K)--
    6/15 @BAL6 ($3.2K)--6--
    6/14 @BAL34.9 ($3.1K)+24.425 ($4.7K)+17.3
    6/13 TEX18.7--14--
    6/12 TEX9.2 ($3K)--7 ($3.7K)--
    6/11 TEX9.2 ($3K)--7 ($4.4K)--
    6/10 TEX6.2 ($3.1K)--4 ($3.8K)--
    6/9 TB0 ($3K)-10.50 ($4.1K)-7.7
    6/8 TB19.2 ($3.1K)+8.713+5.3
    6/8 TB6 ($3.1K)--6--
    6/7 TB0 ($3.1K)-10.50 ($4.2K)-7.7
    6/6 @KC0 ($3.2K)-10.50-7.7
    6/5 @KC3 ($3.3K)-7.53 ($4.8K)-4.7
    6/4 @KC0 ($3.3K)-10.50 ($4.8K)-7.7
    6/2 @NYY18.7 ($3.3K)+8.215+7.3
    6/1 @NYY3 ($3.3K)-7.52 ($4.5K)-5.7
    5/31 @NYY0 ($3.3K)-10.50 ($4.4K)-7.7
    5/29 CLE0 ($3.6K)-10.50 ($4.8K)-7.7
    5/28 CLE9.7 ($3.7K)--7 ($5.5K)--
    5/27 CLE12--10--
    5/26 @HOU3 ($3.7K)-7.52 ($4.3K)-5.7
    5/25 @HOU12.4 ($3.9K)--10 ($4.8K)--
    5/24 @HOU0 ($3.9K)-10.50 ($5K)-7.7
    5/23 @TOR6.5 ($3.8K)--5 ($5.4K)--
    5/22 @TOR21.7 ($3.8K)+11.216 ($5K)+8.3
    5/21 @TOR3 ($3.7K)-7.52 ($5K)-5.7
    5/20 @TOR25.2 ($3.7K)+14.719+11.3
    5/19 HOU21.7 ($3.7K)+11.217 ($4.6K)+9.3
    5/18 HOU3 ($3.7K)-7.53 ($5K)-4.7
    5/17 HOU0 ($3.6K)-10.50 ($4.4K)-7.7
    5/15 COL9.5 ($3.7K)--8 ($4.6K)--
    5/14 COL21.7 ($3.8K)+11.217 ($5K)+9.3
    5/12 SEA26.5 ($3.7K)+1619 ($4.7K)+11.3
    5/11 SEA9.2 ($3.7K)--6 ($5.1K)--
    5/10 SEA3.5 ($3.8K)-72 ($5K)-5.7
    5/7 @BAL3 ($4.1K)-7.52 ($4.9K)-5.7
    5/6 @BAL0 ($4K)-10.50 ($4.9K)-7.7
    5/5 @CHW9.2 ($3.8K)--6 ($4.7K)--
    5/4 @CHW53.1 ($3.7K)+42.640 ($4.5K)+32.3
    5/3 @CHW28.2 ($3.7K)+17.721 ($4.4K)+13.3
    5/2 @CHW9 ($3.8K)--5 ($4.6K)--
    5/1 OAK9.2 ($3.8K)--7 ($4.6K)--
    4/30 OAK12.4 ($3.7K)--10 ($4.5K)--
    4/29 OAK16.5 ($3.5K)+612 ($4.3K)+4.3
    4/28 TB21.7 ($3.1K)+11.217 ($4.1K)+9.3
    4/27 TB6 ($3K)--4 ($4K)--
    4/25 DET22.2 ($2.4K)+11.716 ($3.9K)+8.3
    4/24 DET27.9 ($2.3K)+17.419 ($3.7K)+11.3
    4/23 DET21.7 ($2.3K)+11.217 ($4.2K)+9.3
    4/23 DET0 ($2.3K)-10.50 ($4.2K)-7.7
    4/21 @TB3 ($2.2K)-7.52 ($3.6K)-5.7
    4/20 @TB6 ($2.3K)--5 ($3.6K)--