Daily Fantasy Projection: Mookie Betts

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Betts is not the best option on DraftKings with a projected 9.7 DK pts (#12 among outfielders). He is the #5 highest priced outfielder ($5300). Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Betts is worth $5.4K. Domingo Santana is also priced at $5300, and Betts is a better option at this price. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Michael Brantley (10.4 FP), Joc Pederson (9.9 FP), George Springer (11.1 FP), Joey Gallo (9.8 FP), and Mallex Smith (10.1 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.6 FPs, a value reached in 106 of 229 games (46%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

  • 6/26 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: BOS 5.4 (#6 Most Today) vs CHW 3.6 (#28 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 9.66 Fantasy Points (#11), 4.07 plate appearances (#26), 0.286 BA (#35), 0.945 OPS (#16), 0.21 HR (#20), 0.55 RBI (#36), 0.81 runs (#4), 0.14 stolen bases (#12),

FANDUEL VALUE: Projected for 13 FanDuel pts Mookie Betts is the #11 ranked outfielder. At $4200 he is expected to be the #8 outfielder. Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Betts is worth $4.3K. There are 4 other options at $4200 (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto) and Betts is ranked #2 among the 5. Instead of Betts consider these better options at lower salaries: Michael Brantley (13.7 FP) and Mallex Smith (13.1 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 12.8 FPs, a value reached in 98 of 229 games (43%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 42%.

Betts is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Mookie Betts is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #5 while his projection (rest of week 14) rank is #54. Based on start%, Acuna is expected to produce more fantasy points than Mookie Betts but the projections say otherwise. Mookie Betts should put up more fantasy points than Blackmon who is ranked 1 spot below him based on start%. Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 21 fantasy points (WK 15). Week 15 market expectations match his projection. He is expected to be the #4 outfielder (projected to be #3).

He is projected for 24 fantasy points in week 15 (#3 OF) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
24.01 (#3) 
Avg 
0.304 (#10) 
OPS 
0.832 (#8) 
Home Runs 
 
1.31 (#14)
Runs5 (#3) 
 
RBI 
 
3.37 (#23)
Stolen Bases 
0.95 (#10) 

  • Based on 6/26 start percentages, Mookie Betts is valued behind Acuna and above Blackmon but the projections rank these players in reverse order in week 15.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    4.3 FP @TOR3.4 FP @TOR3.8 FP @TOR4.2 FP @DET4.5 FP @DET3.7 FP @DET

    Mookie Betts last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/25 vs CHW2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-4, 1 R
    6/24 vs CHW5 FP, 19 FD, 14 DK1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R
    6/23 vs TOR2 FP, 6 FD, 6 DK2-4
    6/22 vs TOR5 FP, 21 FD, 13 DK0-2, 2 R, 1 SB, 3 BB
    6/21 vs TOR3 FP, 12 FD, 10 DK1-5, 1 R

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Mookie Betts is projected to be the #4 rated player of 12 outfielders who are owned in 100% of leagues. If you sort these 12 players based on their actual fantasy production and then by their current start percentage, he is the #5 rated player. Based on projections, he is trending up slightly. He is projected for 287 fantasy points in 79 remaining games. His projected average FP rank is the same as his rest of season total rank. The market ranks Mookie Betts behind Springer and above Rosario but the projections rank Mookie Betts over Springer.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    287 (#4) 
    Avg 
     
    0.289 (#22)
    OPS 
    0.898 (#9) 
    Home Runs 
     
    14 (#22)
    Runs61 (#3) 
     
    RBI 
     
    41 (#32)
    Stolen Bases 
    11 (#10) 
    Strikeouts 
     
    52 (#61)

    His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 14 fantasy weeks he had one where he was 50% below his weekly average of 19.9 FPs.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL19.9 FP per Week01
    Week 113 (4 games 3.2 per game)
    Week 222.5 (6 games 3.8 per game)
    Week 314.5 (5 games 2.9 per game)
    Week 416 (6 games 2.7 per game)
    Week 527.5 (6 games 4.6 per game)
    Week 627.5 (6 games 4.6 per game)
    Week 727 (6 games 4.5 per game)
    Week 816 (5 games 3.2 per game)
    Week 921 (7 games 3 per game)
    Week 1013.5 (6 games 2.2 per game)
    Week 1121 (7 games 3 per game)
    Week 1225.5 (6 games 4.2 per game)
    Week 1326.5 (6 games 4.4 per game)
    Week 146.5 (2 games 3.2 per game)-13.4

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 12.8 FD points and 9.9 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 0 and on FanDuel it was 3 fantasy points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 16 and on FanDuel it was 24.9 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), but on DraftKings he has had more good than bad games. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All12.8 ($4.4K)19 G, 27 B9.9 ($5K)17 G, 14 B
    6/25 CHW6.2 ($4.2K)-6.65 ($5.3K)--
    6/24 CHW18.7 ($4.1K)--14 ($4.5K)--
    6/23 TOR6 ($4.1K)-6.86 ($5.2K)--
    6/22 TOR21.4 ($4.2K)+8.613 ($5.3K)--
    6/21 TOR12.2 ($4.1K)--10 ($5K)--
    6/19 @MIN21.7 ($4.1K)+8.917 ($4.4K)+7.1
    6/18 @MIN33.9 ($4.1K)+21.123 ($4.8K)+13.1
    6/17 @MIN6.2 ($4.1K)-6.65 ($4.3K)--
    6/16 @BAL34.2 ($4.2K)+21.425 ($4.8K)+15.1
    6/15 @BAL6.2 ($4.2K)-6.64-5.9
    6/13 TEX6--5--
    6/12 TEX6.5 ($4.2K)--4 ($4.4K)-5.9
    6/11 TEX21.7 ($4.2K)+8.916 ($4.8K)+6.1
    6/10 TEX15.2 ($4.2K)--11 ($4.5K)--
    6/9 TB3 ($4.2K)-9.83 ($4.4K)-6.9
    6/8 TB18.4 ($4.3K)--14--
    6/8 TB0 ($4.3K)-12.80-9.9
    6/7 TB3 ($4.2K)-9.82 ($4.4K)-7.9
    6/6 @KC28.2 ($4.3K)+15.420+10.1
    6/5 @KC6.2 ($4.3K)-6.64 ($4.8K)-5.9
    6/4 @KC12.2 ($4.2K)--9 ($5K)--
    6/2 @NYY0 ($4.4K)-12.80-9.9
    6/1 @NYY6 ($4.3K)-6.85 ($5K)--
    5/31 @NYY3 ($4.4K)-9.82 ($4.9K)-7.9
    5/29 CLE21.7 ($4.3K)+8.917 ($5.1K)+7.1
    5/28 CLE3 ($4.3K)-9.82 ($5.6K)-7.9
    5/27 CLE15.9--12--
    5/26 @HOU9 ($4.3K)--6 ($4.4K)--
    5/25 @HOU6 ($4.5K)-6.85 ($4.9K)--
    5/24 @HOU9 ($4.5K)--8 ($5.2K)--
    5/23 @TOR12.5 ($4.4K)--9 ($5.1K)--
    5/22 @TOR36.9 ($4.4K)+24.125 ($5.3K)+15.1
    5/21 @TOR3 ($4.4K)-9.82 ($5.1K)-7.9
    5/20 @TOR6.2 ($4.5K)-6.65--
    5/19 HOU21.6 ($4.3K)+8.817 ($5K)+7.1
    5/18 HOU15.2 ($4.3K)--10 ($5K)--
    5/17 HOU9 ($4.2K)--6 ($4.4K)--
    5/15 COL21.9 ($4.4K)+9.117 ($5K)+7.1
    5/14 COL0 ($4.4K)-12.80 ($5.5K)-9.9
    5/12 SEA15.4 ($4.4K)--11 ($5.2K)--
    5/11 SEA9.2 ($4.4K)--7 ($5.4K)--
    5/10 SEA18.9 ($4.4K)--13 ($5.1K)--
    5/8 @BAL30.7 ($4.3K)+17.921 ($5.4K)+11.1
    5/7 @BAL21.9 ($4.4K)+9.115 ($5.4K)+5.1
    5/6 @BAL0 ($4.4K)-12.80 ($5.5K)-9.9
    5/4 @CHW19.2 ($4.6K)--13 ($5.4K)--
    5/3 @CHW6.5 ($4.7K)--4 ($5.1K)-5.9
    5/2 @CHW15.4 ($4.7K)--13 ($5.4K)--
    5/1 OAK9.5 ($4.3K)--6 ($5.4K)--
    4/30 OAK21.7 ($4.4K)+8.917 ($5K)+7.1
    4/29 OAK18.7 ($4.4K)--15 ($5.2K)+5.1
    4/28 TB9 ($4.3K)--7 ($4.8K)--
    4/27 TB21.7 ($4.3K)+8.917 ($4.5K)+7.1
    4/25 DET18.7 ($3.9K)--14 ($4.7K)--
    4/24 DET21.9 ($4K)+9.116 ($4.8K)+6.1
    4/23 DET9 ($3.9K)--6 ($4.8K)--
    4/23 DET10 ($3.9K)--7 ($4.8K)--
    4/21 @TB12.2 ($3.9K)--10 ($4.7K)--
    4/20 @TB9 ($3.8K)--8 ($5K)--
    4/19 @TB27.9 ($3.8K)+15.121 ($4.9K)+11.1
    4/17 @NYY0 ($4.1K)-12.80-9.9
    4/16 @NYY3 ($4.4K)-9.82-7.9
    4/15 BAL3 ($4.6K)-9.82-7.9
    4/14 BAL6.2 ($4.7K)-6.65 ($5.3K)--
    4/13 BAL6 ($4.7K)-6.85--
    4/12 BAL9 ($4.8K)--7 ($5.4K)--
    4/11 TOR12.4 ($4.8K)--8 ($5.4K)--
    4/9 TOR18.7 ($4.8K)--14--
    4/6 @ARI3.5 ($4.9K)-9.32 ($5.7K)-7.9
    4/5 @ARI37.4 ($4.8K)+24.628 ($5.4K)+18.1
    4/4 @OAK12.2 ($4.8K)--9--
    4/3 @OAK22.4 ($4.7K)+9.615 ($5.5K)+5.1
    4/2 @OAK6 ($4.9K)-6.85 ($5.5K)--
    4/1 @OAK0 ($4.8K)-12.80 ($5.4K)-9.9
    3/31 @SEA24.9 ($4.9K)+12.118+8.1
    3/30 @SEA3.2 ($5K)-9.62 ($5.4K)-7.9
    3/29 @SEA3 ($4.9K)-9.83 ($5.5K)-6.9
    3/28 @SEA12.2 ($4.8K)--11--