Xander Bogaerts's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

REST OF SEASON VALUE

There are 5 shortstops owned in 100% of leagues and Xander Bogaerts is projected to be the #3 among them. If you sort these 5 players based on their actual fantasy production and then by their current start percentage, he is the #1 rated player. He can be considered slightly overvalued and expect his ranking among 100% owned shortstops to go down. He is projected for 255 fantasy points in 79 remaining games. His projected average FP rank is the same as his rest of season total rank. The market values Xander Bogaerts over Story but the projections do not.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
255 (#3) 
Avg 
0.289 (#8) 
OPS0.877 (#3) 
 
Home Runs 
13 (#4) 
Runs 
49 (#5) 
RBI49 (#1) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
4 (#23)
Strikeouts 
 
59 (#36)

Depending on your league's scoring system his value could be quite different because he has clear strengths and weaknesses.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Xander Bogaerts is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #1 while his projection (rest of week 14) rank is #21. In week 15 rankings vs other shortstops he is projected for more points than 2 other shortstops starting in more leagues: Manny Machado (18.7 FP) and Francisco Lindor (18 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 18.7 fantasy points (WK 15). It should be a very good week 15 as he is projected to be the #1 shortstop.

He is projected for 21.5 fantasy points in week 15 (#1 SS) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
21.51 (#1) 
Avg 
0.304 (#4) 
OPS0.828 (#2) 
 
Home Runs 
1.09 (#4) 
Runs4.21 (#2) 
 
RBI4.32 (#1) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
0.32 (#24)

  • Based on 6/26 start percentages, Xander Bogaerts is valued behind Machado and above Turner but the projections rank Xander Bogaerts over Machado in week 15.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    3.9 FP @TOR3.1 FP @TOR3.4 FP @TOR3.8 FP @DET4.1 FP @DET3.3 FP @DET

    Xander Bogaerts last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/25 vs CHW9 FP, 28 FD, 20 DK1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
    6/24 vs CHW4 FP, 18 FD, 13 DK2-4, 1 SB, 1 BB
    6/23 vs TOR0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4
    6/22 vs TOR3 FP, 10 FD, 7 DK1-5, 1 RBI
    6/21 vs TOR4 FP, 16 FD, 11 DK1-4, 1 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (6/26): Projected for 11.5 FanDuel pts Xander Bogaerts is the #9 ranked shortstop. At $4000 he is expected to be the #2 shortstop. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $3.6K. There are 3 other options at $4000 (Elvis Andrus, Trevor Story, Alex Bregman) and Bogaerts is ranked #3 among the 4. Instead of Bogaerts consider these better options at lower salaries: Javier Baez (13.4 FP), Marcus Semien (11.7 FP), Francisco Lindor (12 FP), J.P. Crawford (12.2 FP), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (13.4 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 12.7 FPs, a value reached in 87 of 228 games (38%). The combined 'cover percentage' for shortstops expected to start is 43%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Bogaerts is not the best option on DraftKings with a projected 8.5 DK pts (#8 among shortstops). At $5100 he is expected to be the #2 shortstop. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $4.5K. Trea Turner is also priced at $5100 and is a better option at this price. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Elvis Andrus (8.8 FP), Javier Baez (10 FP), Marcus Semien (8.9 FP), Francisco Lindor (9.1 FP), and J.P. Crawford (9.3 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.6 FPs, a value reached in 83 of 228 games (36%). The combined 'cover percentage' for shortstops expected to start is 39%.

    Bogaerts is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 14 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 21 FPs in 2 of them. He had 2 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL21 FP per Week22
    Week 19 (4 games 2.2 per game)-12
    Week 214 (6 games 2.3 per game)
    Week 326 (5 games 5.2 per game)
    Week 48.5 (6 games 1.4 per game)-12.5
    Week 522 (6 games 3.7 per game)
    Week 628 (6 games 4.7 per game)
    Week 723.5 (6 games 3.9 per game)
    Week 817.5 (5 games 3.5 per game)
    Week 925.5 (6 games 4.2 per game)
    Week 1040 (6 games 6.7 per game)+19
    Week 1112 (7 games 1.7 per game)
    Week 1234 (7 games 4.9 per game)+13
    Week 1321 (6 games 3.5 per game)
    Week 1413 (2 games 6.5 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 12.9 FD points and 9.8 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 19 and on FanDuel it was 27.9 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All12.9 ($4K)21 G, 26 B9.8 ($4.6K)17 G, 18 B
    6/25 CHW28.4 ($4K)+15.520 ($5.3K)+10.2
    6/24 CHW18 ($3.9K)--13 ($4.4K)--
    6/23 TOR0 ($4K)-12.90 ($5.3K)-9.8
    6/22 TOR9.5 ($4K)--7 ($5.6K)--
    6/21 TOR15.7 ($4.1K)--11 ($5.2K)--
    6/19 @MIN21.9 ($4.1K)+915 ($4.7K)+5.2
    6/18 @MIN9 ($4.2K)--8 ($4.9K)--
    6/17 @MIN12.5 ($4.1K)--10 ($4.5K)--
    6/16 @BAL21.7 ($4.2K)+8.816 ($4.9K)+6.2
    6/15 @BAL22.2 ($4.2K)+9.315+5.2
    6/14 @BAL9.2 ($4.2K)--6 ($5.2K)--
    6/13 TEX27.9--21--
    6/12 TEX3 ($4K)-9.92 ($4.3K)-7.8
    6/11 TEX24.7 ($4.1K)+11.819 ($5K)+9.2
    6/10 TEX3 ($4.3K)-9.93 ($4.5K)-6.8
    6/9 TB3 ($4.3K)-9.92 ($4.9K)-7.8
    6/8 TB6.5 ($4.4K)--4-5.8
    6/8 TB0 ($4.4K)-12.90-9.8
    6/7 TB12.5 ($4.4K)--10 ($5.1K)--
    6/6 @KC15.2 ($4.5K)--10--
    6/5 @KC6.2 ($4.4K)-6.74 ($5.6K)-5.8
    6/4 @KC9.7 ($4.3K)--7 ($5.4K)--
    6/2 @NYY27.9 ($4K)+1521+11.2
    6/1 @NYY30.9 ($4K)+1824 ($5K)+14.2
    5/31 @NYY3 ($4K)-9.93 ($4.9K)-6.8
    5/29 CLE31.4 ($3.8K)+18.523 ($4.7K)+13.2
    5/28 CLE18.9 ($3.9K)--14 ($5.4K)--
    5/27 CLE18.9--14--
    5/25 @HOU0 ($4.2K)-12.90 ($4.4K)-9.8
    5/24 @HOU21.7 ($4.1K)+8.816 ($4.7K)+6.2
    5/23 @TOR15.4 ($4.1K)--12 ($5K)--
    5/22 @TOR12.5 ($4.1K)--13 ($4.9K)--
    5/21 @TOR3 ($4K)-9.92 ($4.6K)-7.8
    5/20 @TOR38.1 ($3.9K)+25.228+18.2
    5/19 HOU16 ($3.9K)--12 ($4.5K)--
    5/18 HOU3 ($3.9K)-9.92 ($4.6K)-7.8
    5/17 HOU21.2 ($3.9K)+8.316 ($4.1K)+6.2
    5/15 COL12.2 ($4.1K)--9 ($4.4K)--
    5/14 COL9 ($4.2K)--7 ($4.8K)--
    5/12 SEA24.6 ($4.2K)+11.717 ($4.5K)+7.2
    5/11 SEA12.7 ($4.2K)--9 ($4.6K)--
    5/10 SEA22.4 ($4.2K)+9.516 ($4.4K)+6.2
    5/8 @BAL3 ($4.2K)-9.93 ($4.9K)-6.8
    5/7 @BAL18.7 ($4.2K)--14 ($4.8K)--
    5/6 @BAL0 ($4K)-12.90 ($4.8K)-9.8
    5/5 @CHW29.2 ($3.9K)+16.320 ($4.4K)+10.2
    5/4 @CHW28.4 ($3.9K)+15.520 ($4.3K)+10.2
    5/3 @CHW9.2 ($3.8K)--8 ($4.3K)--
    5/2 @CHW6 ($3.9K)-6.94 ($4.7K)-5.8
    4/30 OAK3 ($3.8K)-9.92 ($4.4K)-7.8
    4/29 OAK22.2 ($3.9K)+9.316 ($4.5K)+6.2
    4/28 TB0 ($3.8K)-12.90 ($4.2K)-9.8
    4/27 TB9 ($3.7K)--7 ($4.2K)--
    4/25 DET9.4 ($3.7K)--7 ($4.6K)--
    4/24 DET12.7 ($3.5K)--9 ($4.3K)--
    4/23 DET9.5 ($3.5K)--7 ($4.4K)--
    4/23 DET37.4 ($3.5K)+24.528 ($4.4K)+18.2
    4/21 @TB10 ($3.6K)--7 ($3.8K)--
    4/20 @TB6.2 ($3.8K)-6.74 ($4.6K)-5.8
    4/19 @TB3 ($3.7K)-9.93 ($4.1K)-6.8
    4/17 @NYY3 ($4.2K)-9.93-6.8
    4/16 @NYY6 ($3.9K)-6.95--
    4/15 BAL6.2 ($3.9K)-6.75--
    4/14 BAL32.2 ($3.9K)+19.323 ($4.4K)+13.2
    4/13 BAL0 ($4.1K)-12.90-9.8
    4/12 BAL21.9 ($3.8K)+917 ($4.4K)+7.2
    4/11 TOR12.2 ($3.7K)--9 ($4.3K)--
    4/9 TOR21.9 ($3.7K)+915+5.2
    4/7 @ARI3 ($4.1K)-9.93-6.8
    4/6 @ARI6.2 ($4.2K)-6.74 ($4.6K)-5.8
    4/5 @ARI9.2 ($4K)--7 ($4.3K)--
    4/4 @OAK12.5 ($4.2K)--9--
    4/2 @OAK6 ($4.1K)-6.95 ($4.3K)--
    4/1 @OAK9 ($4K)--8 ($4.5K)--
    3/31 @SEA9.2 ($4K)--7--
    3/30 @SEA0 ($4K)-12.90 ($4.4K)-9.8
    3/29 @SEA21.7 ($3.9K)+8.816 ($4.3K)+6.2
    3/28 @SEA6 ($3.8K)-6.95--