JD Martinez Leaves With Back Spasms

SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE

JD Martinez left yesterday’s game early with back spasms. He is listed as day-to-day although he is expected to get tonight’s game off. With Martinez out, the Red Sox will most likely turn to Eduardo Nunez as the DH, but Alex Cora has all his options on the

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 8.4 DraftKings pts J.D. Martinez is the #25 ranked outfielder. At $5000 he is expected to be the #10 outfielder. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $4.7K. Starling Marte is also priced at $5000, and Martinez is a better option at this price. Instead of Martinez consider these better options at lower salaries: Shin-Soo Choo (8.6 FP), Michael Brantley (10.4 FP), Brett Gardner (8.6 FP), Wil Myers (8.7 FP), and Bryce Harper (8.5 FP). He is projected for more points than 2 higher priced options: Domingo Santana (7.6 FP) and Hunter Renfroe (8 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 9 FPs, a value reached in 119 of 235 games (51%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

  • 6/26 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: BOS 5.4 (#6 Most Today) vs CHW 3.6 (#28 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 8.38 Fantasy Points (#24), 3.84 plate appearances (#48), 0.289 BA (#31), 0.922 OPS (#20), 0.22 HR (#15), 0.63 RBI (#15), 0.59 runs (#29), 0.02 stolen bases (#93),
Lower SalaryJ. MartinezHigher Salary
S. Choo (9 FP)8 FPD. Santana (8 FP)
M. Brantley (10 FP)#10 OutfieldH. Renfroe (8 FP)
B. Gardner (9 FP) 
 
W. Myers (9 FP) 
 
B. Harper (8 FP) 
 

FANDUEL VALUE: Projected for 11.2 FanDuel pts J.D. Martinez is the #28 ranked outfielder. He is the #13 highest priced outfielder ($4100). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $3.7K. Bryce Harper is also priced at $4100 and is a better option at this price. Instead of Martinez consider these better options at lower salaries: Shin-Soo Choo (11.4 FP), Michael Brantley (13.7 FP), Brett Gardner (11.4 FP), Aaron Hicks (11.4 FP), and Wil Myers (11.5 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 12.5 FPs, a value reached in 104 of 235 games (44%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 42%.

Martinez is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

J.D. Martinez is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #6 while his projection (rest of week 14) rank is #42. Week 15 1B/DHs comparisons show instead of Martinez consider these better options at lower start percentages: Shin-Soo Choo (19.5 FP), Edwin Encarnacion (19 FP), Paul Goldschmidt (19.3 FP), Jesus Aguilar (19 FP), and Josh Bell (22.5 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 19.5 fantasy points (WK 15). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #5 1B/DH of the week, but he is projected to be the #9 1B/DH.

Lower Start%J. Martinez WK 15Higher Start%
S. Choo (20 FP)19 FPP. Alonso (15 FP)
E. Encarnacion (19 FP)#5 Reliever 
P. Goldschmidt (19 FP) 
 
J. Aguilar (19 FP) 
 
J. Bell (22 FP) 
 

He is projected for 19 fantasy points in week 15 (#9 1B/DH) in 5 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
18.96 (#9) 
Avg 
0.306 (#4) 
OPS 
0.829 (#5) 
Home Runs 
1.25 (#12) 
Runs 
3.41 (#14) 
RBI 
3.61 (#13) 
Stolen Bases 
0.12 (#17) 

  • Based on 6/26 start percentages, J.D. Martinez is valued behind Bellinger and above Santana but the projections rank Santana over J.D. Martinez in week 15.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    3.4 FP @TOR2.7 FP @TOR3 FP @TOR3.3 FP @DET3.6 FP @DET2.9 FP @DET

    J.D. Martinez last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/25 vs CHW2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-3, 1 BB
    6/24 vs CHW0 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-4, 1 BB
    6/23 vs TOR0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4
    6/22 vs TOR0 FP, 6 FD, 4 DK0-4, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/21 vs TOR4 FP, 12 FD, 11 DK3-5, 1 RBI

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    There are 8 1B/DHs owned in 100% of leagues and J.D. Martinez is projected to be the #5 among them. If you sort these 8 players based on their actual fantasy production and then by their current start percentage, he is the #6 rated player. He can be considered overvalued and expect his ranking among 100% owned 1B/DHs to go down. He is projected for 251 fantasy points in 73 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #6 highest average. The market ranks J.D. Martinez behind Muncy and above Stanton but the projections rank J.D. Martinez over Muncy.

    Lower Own%J. Martinez ROSHigher Own%
    E. Encarnacion (280 FP)251 FPM. Muncy (240 FP)
    N. Cruz (258 FP)#6 Reliever 
    C. Santana (274 FP) 
     
    J. Bell (266 FP) 
     
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    251 (#8) 
    Avg0.301 (#3) 
     
    OPS 
    0.927 (#4) 
    Home Runs 
    18 (#6) 
    Runs 
    45 (#16) 
    RBI 
    51 (#13) 
    Stolen Bases 
    2 (#11) 
    Strikeouts 
     
    65 (#34)

    He does not score as many fantasy points and has fewer RBI than you might expect given his OPS projection.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 17 fantasy points per week and had 3 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 2 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL17 FP per Week23
    Week 125 (4 games 6.2 per game)
    Week 213.5 (7 games 1.9 per game)
    Week 317 (5 games 3.4 per game)
    Week 419.5 (6 games 3.2 per game)
    Week 57.5 (4 games 1.9 per game)-9.5
    Week 621.5 (7 games 3.1 per game)
    Week 729.5 (6 games 4.9 per game)+12.5
    Week 821 (5 games 4.2 per game)
    Week 91.5 (3 games 0.5 per game)-15.5
    Week 1023.5 (6 games 3.9 per game)
    Week 1111 (3 games 3.7 per game)
    Week 1233.5 (7 games 4.8 per game)+16.5
    Week 1311 (6 games 1.8 per game)
    Week 142.5 (2 games 1.2 per game)-14.5

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 11.5 points and on DraftKings it was 8.1 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 15 and 21.7 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All11.5 ($4.3K)16 G, 22 B8.1 ($5K)13 G, 21 B
    6/25 CHW6 ($4.2K)--5 ($5.1K)--
    6/24 CHW3 ($4.2K)-8.52 ($4.3K)-6.1
    6/23 TOR0 ($4.3K)-11.50 ($5.1K)-8.1
    6/22 TOR6.2 ($4.4K)--4 ($5.2K)-4.1
    6/21 TOR12.5 ($4.4K)--11 ($5.1K)--
    6/19 @MIN15.9 ($4.4K)--11 ($4.8K)--
    6/18 @MIN0 ($4.4K)-11.50 ($5.1K)-8.1
    6/17 @MIN15.7 ($4.5K)--12 ($4.9K)--
    6/16 @BAL3 ($4.3K)-8.52 ($5.4K)-6.1
    6/15 @BAL18.7 ($4.1K)+7.214+5.9
    6/14 @BAL49.9 ($4.1K)+38.437 ($5K)+28.9
    6/13 TEX18.7--14--
    6/12 TEX0 ($4K)-11.50 ($4.5K)-8.1
    6/11 TEX21.7 ($4.1K)+10.216 ($4.9K)+7.9
    6/10 TEX9 ($4.1K)--8 ($4.7K)--
    6/6 @KC9.2--7--
    6/5 @KC0 ($4.2K)-11.50 ($4.8K)-8.1
    6/4 @KC24.9 ($4.1K)+13.420 ($5K)+11.9
    6/2 @NYY21.7 ($4.2K)+10.217+8.9
    6/1 @NYY6 ($4.2K)--5 ($4.8K)--
    5/31 @NYY0 ($4.2K)-11.50 ($4.7K)-8.1
    5/29 CLE3.2 ($4.3K)-8.32 ($5.1K)-6.1
    5/28 CLE15.2 ($4.2K)--12 ($5.4K)--
    5/27 CLE37.4--28--
    5/26 @HOU3 ($4.2K)-8.53 ($4.1K)-5.1
    5/25 @HOU3--2--
    5/24 @HOU3 ($4.4K)-8.52 ($5.1K)-6.1
    5/19 HOU3.5 ($4.4K)-82 ($5.1K)-6.1
    5/18 HOU6.2 ($4.4K)--4 ($5.2K)-4.1
    5/17 HOU9 ($4.3K)--7 ($4.5K)--
    5/15 COL31.7 ($4.2K)+20.223 ($4.8K)+14.9
    5/14 COL21.7 ($4.2K)+10.217 ($5.3K)+8.9
    5/12 SEA47.1 ($4.1K)+35.634 ($4.8K)+25.9
    5/11 SEA12.2 ($4K)--9 ($4.9K)--
    5/10 SEA6.2 ($4K)--5 ($4.8K)--
    5/8 @BAL0 ($3.9K)-11.50 ($4.9K)-8.1
    5/7 @BAL34.9 ($4K)+23.424 ($5.1K)+15.9
    5/6 @BAL0 ($4.3K)-11.50 ($5.1K)-8.1
    5/5 @CHW6.5 ($4.1K)--5 ($4.7K)--
    5/4 @CHW18.9 ($4.1K)+7.413 ($4.5K)+4.9
    5/3 @CHW15.2 ($3.9K)--13 ($4.4K)+4.9
    5/2 @CHW15.5 ($4K)--13 ($5K)+4.9
    5/1 OAK0 ($4K)-11.50 ($4.9K)-8.1
    4/30 OAK3.2 ($4K)-8.32 ($4.9K)-6.1
    4/29 OAK13.2 ($4K)--9 ($4.8K)--
    4/25 DET6.5 ($4K)--5 ($4.8K)--
    4/24 DET18.7 ($4.1K)+7.215 ($5.2K)+6.9
    4/23 DET6 ($4.1K)--5 ($5.2K)--
    4/23 DET0 ($4.1K)-11.50 ($5.2K)-8.1
    4/21 @TB15 ($4.1K)--10 ($4.8K)--
    4/20 @TB9.2 ($4.1K)--7 ($5.2K)--
    4/19 @TB12.7 ($4.2K)--9 ($5.1K)--
    4/17 @NYY24.7 ($4.3K)+13.219+10.9
    4/16 @NYY3 ($4.4K)-8.53-5.1
    4/15 BAL9 ($4.5K)--8--
    4/14 BAL15.2 ($4.5K)--12 ($5.2K)--
    4/13 BAL3 ($4.5K)-8.53-5.1
    4/12 BAL9.2 ($4.5K)--7 ($5K)--
    4/11 TOR18.7 ($4.6K)+7.213 ($5.2K)+4.9
    4/9 TOR9.2 ($4.7K)--7--
    4/7 @ARI3 ($4.9K)-8.52-6.1
    4/6 @ARI3 ($5.1K)-8.53 ($5.5K)-5.1
    4/5 @ARI6 ($4.9K)--5 ($5K)--
    4/4 @OAK21.7 ($5K)+10.217+8.9
    4/3 @OAK6 ($4.9K)--5 ($5.1K)--
    4/2 @OAK3 ($5K)-8.53 ($5.3K)-5.1
    4/1 @OAK3 ($4.7K)-8.53 ($5.3K)-5.1
    3/31 @SEA44.6 ($4.9K)+33.131+22.9
    3/30 @SEA9.5 ($4.9K)--8 ($5.2K)--
    3/29 @SEA18.7 ($4.8K)+7.214 ($5.1K)+5.9
    3/28 @SEA9.5 ($4.7K)--8--