Chris Sale Computer Projections vs Fantasy Owner Expectations

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Ranking by ownership percentage (98%), Chris Sale is expected to be the #3 starting pitcher for the rest of the season. Chris Sale's market rank is better than our current projections indicate. His fantasy starting pitcher projection rank is #6. Of the 19 98% owned starting pitchers, he is ranked #6. He is projected for 86 fantasy points in 15 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #5 highest average. The market ranks Chris Sale behind Cole and above Buehler but the projections rank these players in reverse order.

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Lower Own%C. Sale ROSHigher Own%
J. Verlander (126 FP)86 FPG. Cole (76 FP)
C. Morton (90 FP)#3 Starting Pitcher 
H. Ryu (94 FP) 
 
W. Buehler (112 FP) 
 
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
86 (#6) 
Wins 
 
7 (#19)
Losses 
 
3 (#53)
Quality Starts 
 
10 (#16)
Strikeouts 
122 (#4) 
Innings 
 
88 (#48)
Walks 
 
21 (#110)
ERA 
2.97 (#7) 
WHIP 
1.01 (#6) 

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among starting pitchers for the rest of week 14 is #4, which is less than his market rank of #3. Week 15 starting pitchers comparisons show these are 4 better options at lower start percentages: David Price (10.8 FP), Charlie Morton (11.2 FP), Patrick Corbin (8 FP), and Walker Buehler (14.5 FP). Starting in 93% of leagues he is expected to produce 10.8 fantasy points (WK 15). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #3 starting pitcher of the week, but he is projected to be the #6 starting pitcher. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 4.2 short of expectations.

Lower Start%C. Sale WK 15Higher Start%
D. Price (11 FP)7 FPG. Cole (4 FP)
C. Morton (11 FP)#3 Starting Pitcher 
P. Corbin (8 FP) 
 
W. Buehler (14 FP) 
 

He is projected for 6.6 fantasy points in week 15 (#6 SP) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
6.63 (#6) 
Wins 
 
0.39 (#72)
Losses 
 
0.22 (#40)
Quality Starts 
 
0.69 (#38)
Strikeouts 
 
8.31 (#26)
Innings 
 
6.22 (#43)
Walks 
 
1.21 (#134)

  • Based on 6/26 start percentages, Chris Sale is valued behind Cole and above Buehler but the projections rank these players in reverse order in week 15.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    --6.6 FP @TOR--------

    Chris Sale last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/21 vs TOR-4 FP, 30 FD, 15 DK5 IP, 3 ER, 8 K, 7 HA, 2 BBI
    6/15 @BAL12 FP, 52 FD, 29 DK6 IP, 2 ER, 10 K, 6 HA, 1 BBI, WIN
    6/10 vs TEX11 FP, 55 FD, 33 DK7 IP, 0 ER, 10 K, 3 HA, 1 BBI
    6/5 @KC22 FP, 73 FD, 49 DK9 IP, 0 ER, 12 K, 3 HA, 0 BBI
    5/31 @NYY-6 FP, 36 FD, 21 DK6 IP, 4 ER, 10 K, 7 HA, 1 BBI

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (6/26): Based on a projected 41.2 FanDuel points, Sale is fairly ranked. At $11500 he is expected to be the #1 pitcher. Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Sale is worth $11K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 42.9 FPs, a value reached in 23 of 48 games (48%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 45%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Based on a projected 23.4 DraftKings points, Sale is fairly ranked. At $11600 he is expected to be the #1 pitcher. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $12K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 22.6 FPs, a value reached in 27 of 48 games (56%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 46%.

    Sale is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 2.6 fantasy points per week and had 8 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 5 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL2.6 FP per Week58
    Week 1-16 (1 games)-18.6
    Week 2-2.5 (1 games)-5.1
    Week 3-11.5 (1 games)-14.1
    Week 4-9 (1 games)-11.6
    Week 51 (2 games 0.5 per game)-1.6
    Week 615 (1 games)+12.4
    Week 712 (1 games)+9.4
    Week 810.8 (2 games 5.4 per game)+8.2
    Week 9-0.5 (1 games)-3.1
    Week 10-6 (1 games)-8.6
    Week 1122 (1 games)+19.4
    Week 1223 (2 games 11.5 per game)+20.4
    Week 13-4 (1 games)-6.6

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 40 points and on DraftKings it was 27.5 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 9.9 and on FanDuel it was 21 fantasy points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 44 and on FanDuel it was 70 FPs. He has had more good FanDuel games (exceed average by 20%) than bad games (20% below average), while on DraftKings he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All40 ($10.7K)3 G, 2 B27.5 ($10.6K)2 G, 1 B
    6/21 TOR30 ($12K)--15.2 ($12K)--
    6/15 @BAL52 ($11.9K)--29.3--
    6/10 TEX55 ($11.8K)--33.4 ($10.9K)--
    6/5 @KC73 ($11.5K)+3349 ($10.6K)+21.5
    5/31 @NYY36 ($11.2K)--20.7 ($10.8K)--
    5/24 @HOU31 ($10.8K)--16.5 ($11.2K)--
    5/19 HOU37 ($11.6K)--20 ($11.2K)--
    5/14 COL70 ($11.4K)+3044 ($10.8K)+16.5
    5/8 @BAL67 ($11K)+2741 ($10.4K)--
    5/3 @CHW58 ($9.9K)--33.9 ($9.9K)--
    4/28 TB43 ($9.2K)--23.6 ($10K)--
    4/23 DET39 ($8.4K)--23 ($8.6K)--
    4/16 @NYY21 ($9K)--10.5-17
    4/9 TOR6 ($10K)-340.8-26.7
    4/2 @OAK22 ($10.8K)--9.9 ($10.5K)-17.6
    3/28 @SEA0 ($11.3K)-40-4.6-32.1