Nolan Arenado Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?

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REST OF SEASON VALUE

Of the 6 third basemen that are 100% owned, Nolan Arenado is projected to be the best fantasy player for the rest of the season. According to these projections his value is rising slightly. He is projected for 359 fantasy points in 93 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#2) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Nolan Arenado behind Rendon and above Bregman but the projections rank Nolan Arenado over Rendon.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
359 (#1) 
Avg0.314 (#3) 
 
OPS0.989 (#1) 
 
Home Runs27 (#1) 
 
Runs63 (#3) 
 
RBI73 (#1) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
1 (#26)
Strikeouts 
 
61 (#26)

He has more relative strengths than weaknesses which makes him a better value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among third basemen for the rest of week 12 is #1, which is better than his market rank of #2. Week 13 third basemen comparisons show these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Asdrubal Cabrera (22.1 FP), Anthony Rendon (25 FP), Tommy La Stella (23.4 FP), Jose Ramirez (24.5 FP), and Alex Bregman (24.4 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 25 fantasy points (WK 13). Owners expect him to be the most productive third baseman of the week, but he is projected to be the #6 third baseman. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 3.4 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 3.7 which is less than his actual per game average (4.2).

He is projected for 21.6 fantasy points in week 13 (#6 3B) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
21.59 (#6) 
Avg0.304 (#3) 
 
OPS0.876 (#2) 
 
Home Runs1.65 (#2) 
 
Runs 
3.64 (#10) 
RBI 
4.18 (#6) 
Stolen Bases 
 
0.1 (#26)

  • Based on 6/12 start %s the market values Nolan Arenado over Bregman and the projections agree.
  • Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23
    3 FP @ARI3.3 FP @ARI4.4 FP @ARI3.9 FP @LAD3.2 FP @LAD3.8 FP @LAD

    Nolan Arenado last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/11 vs CHC3 FP, 9 FD, 7 DK1-3, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/10 vs CHC6 FP, 22 FD, 16 DK1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R
    6/9 @NYM0 FP, 3 FD, 3 DK1-4
    6/8 @NYM2 FP, 16 FD, 10 DK1-3, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 1 BB
    6/7 @NYM0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (6/12): Nolan Arenado is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 10.5 DK pts (#1 among third basemen). He is the #3 highest priced third baseman ($5100). Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Arenado is worth $5.5K. He is projected for more points than 2 higher priced options: Eduardo Escobar (7.3 FP) and Kris Bryant (9.6 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.7 FPs, a value reached in 89 of 224 games (40%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 37%.

    FANDUEL VALUE: Arenado is projected for 14.1 FanDuel points and is fairly ranked. At $4800 he is expected to be the #1 third baseman. Based on 6/12 salaries and projected points per dollar, Arenado is worth $4.5K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 14.9 FPs, a value reached in 78 of 224 games (35%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 40%.

    Arenado is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 12 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 22 FPs in 3 of them. He had 3 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL22 FP per Week33
    Week 17.5 (4 games 1.9 per game)-14.9
    Week 219 (6 games 3.2 per game)
    Week 314 (5 games 2.8 per game)
    Week 420 (5 games 4 per game)
    Week 536 (6 games 6 per game)+13.6
    Week 637 (7 games 5.3 per game)+14.6
    Week 726.5 (5 games 5.3 per game)
    Week 813.5 (5 games 2.7 per game)
    Week 944 (6 games 7.3 per game)+21.6
    Week 1033.5 (7 games 4.8 per game)
    Week 118 (6 games 1.3 per game)-14.4
    Week 129.5 (2 games 4.8 per game)-12.9

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 14 FD points and 10.8 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 23 and on FanDuel it was 31.4 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All14 ($4.5K)17 G, 22 B10.8 ($5.3K)14 G, 17 B
    6/11 CHC9.2 ($4.7K)--7 ($5.6K)--
    6/10 CHC22.2 ($4.8K)+8.216 ($5.5K)--
    6/9 @NYM3 ($4.3K)-113 ($4.9K)-7.8
    6/8 @NYM15.5 ($4.3K)--10 ($5.4K)--
    6/7 @NYM0 ($4.2K)-140 ($5.5K)-10.8
    6/6 @CHC0 ($4.2K)-140-10.8
    6/5 @CHC16.2 ($4.3K)--11 ($5.7K)--
    6/4 @CHC3 ($4.3K)-113 ($5.3K)-7.8
    6/2 TOR21.7 ($4.8K)+7.717 ($5.8K)+6.2
    6/1 TOR9.7 ($4.8K)--7 ($5.9K)--
    5/31 TOR28.7 ($4.8K)+14.721 ($5.9K)+10.2
    5/30 ARI15.7 ($4.8K)--11 ($5.7K)--
    5/29 ARI9.2 ($4.9K)--7 ($5.6K)--
    5/28 ARI12.4 ($4.8K)--8 ($5.9K)--
    5/27 ARI13--10--
    5/26 BAL28.4 ($4.8K)+14.421 ($5.7K)+10.2
    5/25 BAL41.7 ($4.7K)+27.730 ($5.6K)+19.2
    5/24 BAL40.4 ($4.7K)+26.431 ($5.6K)+20.2
    5/23 @PIT12.2 ($4.2K)--10 ($5.1K)--
    5/22 @PIT12.2 ($4.2K)--10 ($5.2K)--
    5/21 @PIT6 ($4.2K)-86 ($5.3K)--
    5/19 @PHI0 ($4.3K)-140 ($5.3K)-10.8
    5/18 @PHI9 ($4.2K)--7 ($5.4K)--
    5/17 @PHI6.2 ($4.4K)-7.85 ($5.4K)-5.8
    5/15 @BOS6 ($4.5K)-85 ($5.1K)-5.8
    5/14 @BOS25.2 ($4.4K)+11.218 ($5.1K)+7.2
    5/12 SD9.2 ($5K)--6--
    5/11 SD9.5 ($5K)--7 ($5.8K)--
    5/10 SD22.2 ($4.8K)+8.217 ($5.7K)+6.2
    5/9 SF40.9 ($4.8K)+26.930 ($5.8K)+19.2
    5/7 SF9.2 ($4.8K)--8 ($5.6K)--
    5/5 ARI9.2 ($4.8K)--8--
    5/4 ARI0 ($4.9K)-140 ($5.6K)-10.8
    5/3 ARI18.2 ($4.9K)--15 ($5.5K)--
    5/2 @MIL31.4 ($4.2K)+17.424 ($4.8K)+13.2
    5/1 @MIL47.4 ($4.3K)+33.435 ($5.1K)+24.2
    4/30 @MIL15.7 ($4.2K)--11 ($5.2K)--
    4/29 @MIL0 ($4.4K)-140 ($5.4K)-10.8
    4/28 @ATL0 ($4.3K)-140 ($5.2K)-10.8
    4/27 @ATL24.7 ($4K)+10.719 ($4.8K)+8.2
    4/26 @ATL31.4 ($4.2K)+17.423 ($4.8K)+12.2
    4/24 WAS19.7 ($4.7K)--14 ($5.3K)--
    4/23 WAS0 ($4.6K)-140 ($5.1K)-10.8
    4/22 WAS40.6 ($4.6K)+26.630 ($5.2K)+19.2
    4/21 PHI9 ($4.6K)--8 ($5.4K)--
    4/19 PHI0 ($4.6K)-140 ($5.4K)-10.8
    4/18 PHI9.4 ($4.6K)--7 ($5.4K)--
    4/16 @SD28.4 ($3.8K)+14.421 ($4.5K)+10.2
    4/15 @SD18.7 ($3.7K)--14 ($4.5K)--
    4/14 @SF34.9 ($3.8K)+20.924+13.2
    4/13 @SF0 ($3.9K)-140-10.8
    4/11 @SF3 ($4.2K)-112 ($4.7K)-8.8
    4/9 ATL3 ($4.4K)-113 ($5.3K)-7.8
    4/8 ATL6.2 ($4.3K)-7.85 ($5.4K)-5.8
    4/7 LAD28.2 ($4.3K)+14.222+11.2
    4/6 LAD0 ($4.5K)-140 ($5.2K)-10.8
    4/5 LAD16.2 ($4.8K)--11--
    4/3 @TB3 ($4.3K)-112-8.8
    4/2 @TB0 ($4.5K)-140 ($4.1K)-10.8
    4/1 @TB15.5 ($4.7K)--13 ($4.8K)--
    3/31 @MIA0 ($4.8K)-140 ($5.1K)-10.8
    3/30 @MIA6.2 ($5K)-7.85-5.8
    3/29 @MIA9.5 ($4.8K)--8 ($5K)--
    3/28 @MIA9.2 ($4.6K)--7 ($5.5K)--