Daily Fantasy Projection: Freddie Freeman

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 15.8 FanDuel pts Freddie Freeman is the #1 ranked C/1Bs. At $4400 he is expected to be the #2 C/1Bs. Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Freeman is worth $5.8K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 12 FPs, a value reached in 97 of 232 games (42%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 44%.

  • 6/12 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: ATL 6.8 (#1 Most Today) vs PIT 3.7 (#21 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 15.76 Fantasy Points (#0), 4.08 plate appearances (#9), 0.377 BA (#1), 1.212 OPS (#2), 0.29 HR (#1), 0.87 RBI (#1), 0.89 runs (#1), 0.05 stolen bases (#2),

Freeman is in the SportsLine FanDuel optimal lineup based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He is not in the DraftKings optimal lineup but is.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Based on a projected 11.7 DraftKings points, Freeman is fairly ranked. He is the #1 highest priced first basemen ($5600). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $6.7K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Anthony Rizzo is also priced at $5600, and Freeman is a better option at this price. Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.8 FPs, a value reached in 86 of 232 games (37%). The combined 'cover percentage' for first basemen expected to start is 37%.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among 1B/DHs for the rest of week 12 is #1, which is better than his market rank of #3. When compared to other 1B/DHs in week 13 instead of Freeman consider these better options at lower start percentages: Edwin Encarnacion (20.4 FP), Carlos Santana (23.8 FP), Max Muncy (20.8 FP), Daniel Vogelbach (20.1 FP), and Cody Bellinger (24.9 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 24.9 fantasy points (WK 13). Owners expect him to be the most productive 1B/DH of the week, but he is projected to be the #8 1B/DH. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 5.4 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 3.4 which is less than his actual per game average (3.9).

He is projected for 19.5 fantasy points in week 13 (#8 1B/DH) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
19.54 (#8) 
Avg0.304 (#2) 
 
OPS0.819 (#3) 
 
Home Runs 
 
1.13 (#20)
Runs 
3.78 (#8) 
RBI 
3.71 (#13) 
Stolen Bases 
0.22 (#5) 

  • Based on 6/12 start %s the market values Freddie Freeman over Rizzo and the projections agree.
  • Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23
    3.2 FP vs NYM3 FP vs NYM3.1 FP vs NYM3.5 FP @WAS2.7 FP @WAS4 FP @WAS

    Freddie Freeman last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/11 vs PIT0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4
    6/10 vs PIT9 FP, 25 FD, 20 DK1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/9 @MIA2 FP, 9 FD, 8 DK2-6
    6/8 @MIA2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-3, 1 BB
    6/7 @MIA12 FP, 38 FD, 27 DK2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 R, 2 BB

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Freddie Freeman is projected to be the #2 rated player of 6 1B/DHs who are owned in 100% of leagues. Using actual fantasy production and current start percentage as the first and second tie-breaker, his market rank is #3. According to these projections his value is rising slightly. He is projected for 312 fantasy points in 92 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#3) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Freddie Freeman behind Rizzo and above Hoskins but the projections rank Freddie Freeman over Rizzo.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    312 (#2) 
    Avg0.304 (#2) 
     
    OPS0.926 (#3) 
     
    Home Runs 
    18 (#10) 
    Runs59 (#1) 
     
    RBI 
    57 (#9) 
    Stolen Bases 
    3 (#5) 
    Strikeouts 
     
    71 (#29)

    He has more relative strengths than weaknesses which makes him a better value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 12 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 21 FPs in 2 of them. He had one bad week where he came up 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL21 FP per Week21
    Week 113.5 (3 games 4.5 per game)
    Week 227.5 (6 games 4.6 per game)
    Week 318 (6 games 3 per game)
    Week 421 (6 games 3.5 per game)
    Week 528.5 (6 games 4.8 per game)
    Week 614.5 (7 games 2.1 per game)
    Week 720 (6 games 3.3 per game)
    Week 834 (6 games 5.7 per game)+12.5
    Week 925.5 (7 games 3.6 per game)
    Week 1011.5 (5 games 2.3 per game)
    Week 1135 (6 games 5.8 per game)+13.5
    Week 128.5 (2 games 4.2 per game)-13

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 13.3 points and on DraftKings it was 9.8 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 0 and on FanDuel it was 3 fantasy points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 21 and on FanDuel it was 28.2 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), but on DraftKings he has had more good than bad games. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All13.3 ($4.3K)20 G, 25 B9.8 ($4.9K)17 G, 16 B
    6/11 PIT0 ($4.3K)-13.30 ($5.1K)-9.8
    6/10 PIT25.2 ($4.4K)+11.920 ($5.4K)+10.2
    6/9 @MIA9 ($4.4K)--8 ($5.5K)--
    6/8 @MIA6 ($4.3K)-7.35--
    6/7 @MIA37.7 ($4.4K)+24.427 ($5.1K)+17.2
    6/6 @PIT21.7 ($4.6K)+8.416+6.2
    6/5 @PIT6.2 ($4.3K)-7.14 ($5.4K)-5.8
    6/4 @PIT34.4 ($4.3K)+21.126 ($5.2K)+16.2
    6/2 DET12.7 ($4.2K)--9 ($4.4K)--
    6/1 DET22.2 ($4.2K)+8.916 ($5K)+6.2
    5/31 DET9 ($4.1K)--6 ($4.9K)--
    5/29 WAS0 ($4.2K)-13.30 ($5.2K)-9.8
    5/28 WAS6.2 ($4K)-7.14 ($4.8K)-5.8
    5/26 @STL15.4 ($4.2K)--12--
    5/25 @STL3 ($4.2K)-10.32 ($5K)-7.8
    5/24 @STL21.7 ($4.3K)+8.417 ($5.2K)+7.2
    5/23 @SF3 ($4.2K)-10.32 ($4.9K)-7.8
    5/22 @SF27.7 ($4.3K)+14.422 ($5.2K)+12.2
    5/21 @SF6.5 ($4.4K)-6.85 ($5.1K)--
    5/20 @SF6 ($4.4K)-7.35 ($5.1K)--
    5/19 MIL21.7 ($4.2K)+8.417 ($5K)+7.2
    5/18 MIL24.7 ($4.2K)+11.419 ($5K)+9.2
    5/17 MIL22.2 ($4K)+8.916 ($4.6K)+6.2
    5/16 STL37.6 ($4K)+24.328 ($4.5K)+18.2
    5/15 STL6 ($4.1K)-7.35 ($4.8K)--
    5/14 STL0 ($4K)-13.30 ($4.5K)-9.8
    5/11 @ARI15.2 ($4K)--13 ($4.9K)--
    5/10 @ARI12.5 ($4K)--10 ($4.6K)--
    5/9 @ARI3 ($4K)-10.33 ($4.6K)-6.8
    5/8 @LAD18.7 ($4K)--15 ($4.4K)+5.2
    5/7 @LAD0 ($4K)-13.30 ($4.4K)-9.8
    5/6 @LAD22.2 ($4.2K)+8.916 ($4.7K)+6.2
    5/5 @MIA0 ($4.3K)-13.30 ($5K)-9.8
    5/4 @MIA9 ($4.2K)--7 ($4.8K)--
    5/3 @MIA21.7 ($4.2K)+8.417 ($5.1K)+7.2
    5/2 SD9.2 ($4.4K)--7 ($4.8K)--
    5/1 SD9 ($4.4K)--8 ($5.1K)--
    4/30 SD0 ($4.6K)-13.30 ($4.9K)-9.8
    4/29 SD0 ($4.4K)-13.30 ($5.1K)-9.8
    4/28 COL31.2 ($4.3K)+17.923 ($5.2K)+13.2
    4/27 COL21.7 ($4.3K)+8.416 ($4.8K)+6.2
    4/26 COL3 ($4.2K)-10.32 ($4.7K)-7.8
    4/25 @CIN28.2 ($4.2K)+14.922 ($4.6K)+12.2
    4/24 @CIN6 ($4.3K)-7.35 ($5K)--
    4/23 @CIN9.7 ($4.4K)--7 ($5.3K)--
    4/21 @CLE28.4 ($4.1K)+15.121+11.2
    4/20 @CLE6.5 ($4.1K)-6.84 ($4.6K)-5.8
    4/20 @CLE6.2 ($4.1K)-7.14 ($4.6K)-5.8
    4/18 ARI21.7 ($4.4K)+8.416+6.2
    4/17 ARI3 ($4.1K)-10.33 ($4.8K)-6.8
    4/16 ARI12.7 ($4.2K)--9 ($4.4K)--
    4/14 NYM6 ($4.4K)-7.34-5.8
    4/13 NYM15.9 ($4.4K)--12 ($4.8K)--
    4/12 NYM9.2 ($4.5K)--6 ($4.6K)--
    4/11 NYM9.2 ($4.3K)--7 ($4.9K)--
    4/9 @COL15.9 ($4.9K)--12 ($5.1K)--
    4/8 @COL6.2 ($4.9K)-7.15 ($5.6K)--
    4/7 MIA28.4 ($4.5K)+15.121 ($4.6K)+11.2
    4/6 MIA18.5 ($4.7K)--14 ($4.8K)--
    4/5 MIA6.2 ($4.5K)-7.15 ($4.8K)--
    4/4 CHC15.4 ($4.4K)--11 ($4.6K)--
    4/3 CHC9.2 ($4.2K)--6 ($4.6K)--
    4/1 CHC12.2 ($4.2K)--9 ($4.7K)--
    3/31 @PHI9 ($4.2K)--7--
    3/30 @PHI25 ($4.2K)+11.720+10.2
    3/28 @PHI6 ($4K)-7.37--