headshot
Nolan
Arenado
College None
Team Colorado Rockies
283B
6'2"Height
220Weight
28Age
7Exp
R/RBats/Throws
Nolan Arenado's Fantasy Scouting Report

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE

Nolan Arenado was removed from yesterday’s game of beanball after being hit by a pitch in the forearm. He was supposedly removed as a precaution to keep the swelling down but we will find out if he is in the lineup tonight for their game against the Padres. He is not expected to miss much time, if any.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among third basemans for week 14 is #1, which is better than his market rank of #2. Based on start%, Rendon is expected to produce more fantasy points than Nolan Arenado but the projections say otherwise. Nolan Arenado should put up more fantasy points than Moustakas who is ranked 1 spot below him based on start%. Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 25 fantasy points (WK 14). Week 14 market expectations match his projection. He is expected to be the #2 third baseman (projected to be #1).

He is projected for 25.3 fantasy points in week 14 (#1 3B) in 7 games.


  • Based on 6/24 start percentages, Nolan Arenado is valued behind Rendon and above Moustakas and the projections agree for this week.
  • Nolan Arenado last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (6/24): Based on a projected 15.4 FanDuel points, Arenado is fairly ranked. At $4500 he is expected to be the #1 third baseman. Based on 6/24 salaries and projected points per dollar, Arenado is worth $5.3K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 13.1 FPs, a value reached in 80 of 235 games (34%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 40%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Arenado is projected for 11.5 DraftKings points and is fairly ranked. At $5000 he is expected to be the #1 third baseman. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $6.4K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.1 FPs, a value reached in 91 of 235 games (39%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 36%.

    Arenado is in the SportsLine Projection model FanDuel optimal lineup and DraftKings optimal lineup. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has used his own proprietary model to successfully win over $1 Million in Daily Fantasy. His lineups often differ significantly from the SportsLine Projection model.

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Nolan Arenado is projected to be the #2 rated player of 5 third basemen who are owned in 100% of leagues. Using actual fantasy production and current start percentage as the first and second tie-breaker, his market rank is #2. He is fairly rated as a bottom half, but still 100% owned third baseman. He is projected for 307 fantasy points in 82 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#3) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Nolan Arenado behind Rendon and above Moustakas and the projections agree.

    His value increases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative strengths than weaknesses.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 23 fantasy points per week and had 3 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 2 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 14 points and on DraftKings it was 11.1 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 23 and 31.4 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    Career Stats
    YEARTEAMGABRHHRRBIBBKOSBCSAVGOBPSLG
    2019COL7629657961962304222.324.385.587
    2018COL156590104175381107312222.296.373.561
    2017COL159606100187371306210632.308.373.585
    2016COL160618116182411336810323.294.362.569
    2015COL15761697177421303411025.287.323.574
    2014COL111432581241861255821.287.328.500
    2013COL133486491301052237220.267.300.405
    Career (7 Seasons)952364458110712056783156131515.293.349.543
    YEARTEAM2B3BTBSFSHHPIBGDP
    2019COL17217440263
    2018COL3823316131016
    2017COL437355614921
    2016COL3563528021017
    2015COL43435411041317
    2014COL342216514113
    2013COL294197221116
    Career (7 Seasons)2392719794252050103
    2019 Situational Stats
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    March4182410010100.222.278.222500001
    April2510018286162091011.333.540.2805420011
    May26106254591929111500.479.783.4258310141
    June2071121910412101511.361.451.2683210110
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Home36138325182834152100.430.630.3708730241
    Away391572545901128152022.347.554.2878710022
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Day2698182730520161101.381.459.2764520233
    Night4919739691421442143021.390.655.35012920030
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    vs. Ariz.1037101530167501.511.568.4052100130
    vs. Atl.5224620230300.273.636.2731400000
    vs. Balt.3135810490200.6151.615.6152100000
    vs. Bos.291210121300.300.667.222600000
    vs. Chi-N6183400143200.348.389.222710100
    vs. LA-NL5193601163400.391.579.3161110001
    vs. Miami4182410010100.222.278.222500001
    vs. Milw.4175710371300.4441.000.4121700000
    vs. NY-NL3110200011310.250.182.182200000
    vs. Phil.6243510002100.269.250.208600000
    vs. Pitt.3132610001000.500.538.462700001
    vs. S.D.93679112641000.317.500.2501810020
    vs. S.F.6245800266311.467.583.3331400010
    vs. T.B.3100310011000.364.400.300400000
    vs. Tor.3123620150100.500.917.5001100000
    vs. Wash.3124520150000.385.833.4171010000
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Coors Field36138325182834152100.430.630.3708730241
    Dodger Stadium281200121200.333.625.250500000
    Fenway Park291210121300.300.667.222600000
    Citi Field3110200011310.250.182.182200000
    Marlins Park4182410010100.222.278.222500001
    PETCO Park293300230100.3331.000.333900000
    Citizens Bank Park3111210001000.250.273.182300000
    Tropicana Field3100310011000.364.400.300400000
    SunTrust Park3143420230200.286.857.2861200000
    Wrigley Field3111200021100.231.182.182210000
    Miller Park4175710371300.4441.000.4121700000
    PNC Park3132610001000.500.538.462700001
    Oracle Park4162300134211.350.375.188600010
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    vs. Lefthanded Pitcher4379202641717161712.448.671.3295300130
    vs. Righthanded Pitcher7321637701311245142410.362.560.32412140133
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Turf6204820144201.500.650.4001300010
    Grass6927553881521858263921.378.585.32016140253
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Pre All-Star7529557961721962304122.387.590.32517440263
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    RISP6573403051743151100.500.795.4115840261
    RISP w/Two out41351514204198600.512.800.4002800020
    Runners on Base721314852921053191922.468.725.3979540263
    Bases Empty701649448099112200.314.482.2687900000
    Bases Loaded1638100030100.250.333.333110000
    Late Inning Pressure384671110384500.294.457.2392110021
    LIP-Runners On22195600164200.417.474.316910021
    with 0 outs598314306161331000.375.675.3615620001
    with 1 out6497213271627111500.402.608.3305920242
    with 2 outs67115223440722161622.382.513.2965900020
    Leading Off435431840333500.368.574.3333100000
    1st Inning665412204051410802.477.722.3703900112
    >= 7th Inning729317242151691400.320.462.2584310051
    Extra Innings780210002200.400.375.250300010
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Lineup Slot 2120000000100.000.000.000000000
    Lineup Slot 3401643150921130152512.359.585.3059620022
    Lineup Slot 434129264680832151510.426.605.3577820241
    CATEGORYGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSOBPSLGAVGTBSFSHHBPIBBGDP
    Playing 3B7529557961721962304122.387.590.32517440263
    2019 Game Log
    MARCH
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSHBPAVGSLG%YTD OBP%
    03/28@W6-3511100000000.200.400.200
    03/29@W6-1502000101000.300.400.300
    03/30@L7-3411000000000.286.357.286
    03/31@L3-0400000000000.222.278.222
    APRIL
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSHBPAVGSLG%YTD OBP%
    04/01@L7-1403100100000.318.409.318
    04/02@L4-0300000000000.280.360.280
    04/03@W1-0300000010000.250.321.267
    04/05vsL10-6311000210000.258.323.286
    04/06vsL7-2400000001000.229.286.256
    04/07vsL12-6413010211000.282.385.311
    04/08vsL8-6411000000000.279.372.306
    04/09vsL7-1401000001000.277.362.302
    04/11@L1-0300000010000.260.340.293
    04/12@L3-2702000011110.263.333.299
    04/13@L5-2400000001000.246.311.282
    04/14@W4-0221001320000.254.365.299
    04/15@W5-2411001101000.254.403.296
    04/16@W8-2522001200000.264.444.302
    04/18vsW6-2421000000000.263.434.300
    04/19vsW4-3500000001000.247.407.284
    04/21vsW4-1402000010000.259.412.297
    04/22vsW7-5433201200000.281.483.314
    04/23vsL6-3400000000000.269.462.303
    04/24vsW9-5412000300000.278.464.310
    04/26@W8-4522101201000.284.500.314
    04/27@W9-5412101100000.292.538.320
    04/28@L8-7500000001000.279.514.307
    04/29@L5-1400000001000.270.496.298
    04/30@L4-3311100110000.271.500.301
    MAY
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSHBPAVGSLG%YTD OBP%
    05/01@W11-4523002402000.285.553.312
    05/02@W11-6523001200000.297.578.322
    05/03vsL10-9513200001000.308.594.331
    05/04vsL9-2400000000000.299.577.323
    05/05vsW8-7412000000000.305.574.327
    05/07vsL14-4412000000000.310.572.331
    05/09vsW12-11423001321000.322.597.345
    05/10vsW12-2512010203000.325.604.347
    05/11vsL4-3301100100000.325.605.346
    05/12vsW10-7310000021000.319.594.344
    05/14@W5-4411001211000.317.604.344
    05/15@L6-5501100002000.314.598.340
    05/17@L5-4411000000000.312.590.338
    05/18@L2-1301100010000.313.591.340
    05/19@L7-5400000000000.306.578.333
    05/21@W5-0502000000000.308.573.335
    05/22@W9-3412000010000.312.571.339
    05/23@L14-6412100000000.316.575.342
    05/24vsW8-6423002200000.325.609.349
    05/25vsL9-6413101500000.333.632.356
    05/26vsW8-7522001202000.335.641.357
    05/27vsW4-3502000200000.336.635.358
    05/28vsW6-2221000020000.338.634.361
    05/29vsW5-4311000011000.338.630.362
    05/30vsW11-10411000111000.336.623.362
    05/31vsW13-6413200300000.344.634.367
    JUNE
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSHBPAVGSLG%YTD OBP%
    06/01vsW4-2411000101000.342.627.366
    06/02vsW5-1412001100000.345.638.368
    06/04@L6-3401000000000.343.631.366
    06/05@L9-8311000210000.343.628.367
    06/06@W3-1400000001000.337.617.361
    06/07@W5-1400000001000.332.607.356
    06/08@L5-3301000111100.332.604.357
    06/09@L6-1401000001000.331.598.356
    06/10vsW6-5411001201000.329.605.354
    06/11vsW10-3311000010000.330.602.355
    06/12vsL10-1000000010000.330.602.356
    06/13vsW9-6401000011000.328.596.356
    06/14vsL16-12200000001000.326.592.353
    06/15vsW14-8512000002000.327.588.354
    06/16vsL14-13510000011000.321.578.350
    06/18@W8-1423101310000.327.594.355
    06/19@W6-4412000001000.330.593.357
    06/20@W6-4210000021010.328.589.357
    06/21@L4-2411001102000.326.595.355
    06/22@L5-4401000110000.325.590.355
    06/23@L6-3100000001000.324.588.354
    Past Projections
  • 23 Jun 2019

    Arenado Leaves After Hit By Pitch

    Arenado Leaves After Hit By Pitch
  • 22 Jun 2019

    Arenado Leaves After Hit By Pitch

    Arenado Leaves After Hit By Pitch
  • 21 Jun 2019

    Arenado Leaves After Hit By Pitch

    Arenado Leaves After Hit By Pitch
  • 20 Jun 2019

    Arenado Leaves After Hit By Pitch

    Arenado Leaves After Hit By Pitch