Toronto
Blue Jays
Stadium Rogers Centre
29-51 Overall | AL EAST 4th
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Blue Jays.2273291044.87
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  6/20
vs
Angels
W / 107-5
Fri  6/21
@
Red Sox
L / 105-7
Sat  6/22
@
Red Sox
W8-7
Sun  6/23
@
Red Sox
W6-1
Mon  6/24
@
Yankees
L8-10
Tue  6/25
@
Yankees
L3-4
Wed  6/26
@
Yankees
1:05pm
Fri  6/28
vs
Royals
7:07pm
Sat  6/29
vs
Royals
4:07pm
Sun  6/30
vs
Royals
1:07pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 29-51 Blue Jays 'should have' 35 wins. They have 25 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 24 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have come up especially short at home. Their 13-25- home record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-13, 38%) is under their expected 40% win percentage. In simulations where the Blue Jays played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 39.1% of the time (#28 in the league). Their peak rank was #23 in the league back on 5/5.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is -1.1 which ranks #13 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #12. They are the #12 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #13 ranked team among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is -0.29 (#10 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 10 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 4 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUN 26
LIKELY LOSS
29% @NYY
341 miles
JUN 28
CLOSE GAME
59% KC
--
JUN 29
CLOSE GAME
53% KC
--
JUN 30
LIKELY LOSS
35% KC
--
JUL 1
CLOSE GAME
45% KC
--
JUL 2
LIKELY LOSS
29% BOS
--
JUL 3
LIKELY LOSS
38% BOS
--
JUL 4
LIKELY LOSS
39% BOS
--
JUL 5
LIKELY WIN
63% BAL
--
JUL 6
CLOSE GAME
53% BAL
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 4-6 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 24.6%. At #12 in the league, they are behind the Mariners by 5.5 points. They have a +0.52 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Royals by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Royals. There is only a 0.38 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Blue Jays are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Blue Jays are playing 11 games, traveling 341 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #30 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Toronto Blue Jays' next game. They are +223 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Blue Jays were projected for 69.2 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 5/5 they had a 78.7% chance before dropping to 55.7% on 6/12. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 61.5.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #16 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #2 Toughest

Blue Jays' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
31 Biagini, Joe RP6-523505/29/19904No College
8 Biggio, Cavan 2B6-220004/11/19951Notre Dame
3 Drury, Brandon 3B6-221008/21/19925No College
16 Galvis, Freddy SS5-1018511/14/19898No College
43 Gaviglio, Sam RP6-219505/22/19903Oregon State
51 Giles, Ken RP6-220509/20/19906No College
15 Grichuk, Randal CF6-120508/13/19916No College
27 Guerrero, Vladimir 3B6-225003/16/19991No College
13 Gurriel, Lourdes LF6-218510/10/19932No College
37 Hernandez, Teoscar LF6-218010/15/19924No College
46 Hudson, Daniel RP6-322503/09/198710No College
9 Jansen, Danny C6-222504/15/19952No College
66 Kingham, Nick RP6-523511/08/19912No College
64 Law, Derek RP6-322409/14/19904No College
21 Maile, Luke C6-322502/06/19915Kentucky
58 Mayza, Tim RP6-322001/15/19923No College
28 McKinney, Billy RF6-120508/23/19942No College
35 Phelps, David RP6-220010/09/19867Notre Dame
54 Reid-Foley, Sean SP6-322008/30/19952No College
2 Richard, Clayton SP6-524009/12/198311Michigan
41 Sanchez, Aaron SP6-421507/01/19926No College
5 Sogard, Eric 2B5-1018505/22/19869Arizona State
6 Stroman, Marcus SP5-818005/01/19916Duke
44 Tellez, Rowdy DH6-422003/16/19952No College
57 Thornton, Trent SP6-017509/30/19931North Carolina