|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 29-51 Blue Jays 'should have' 35 wins. They have 25 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 24 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have come up especially short at home. Their 13-25- home record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-13, 38%) is under their expected 40% win percentage. In simulations where the Blue Jays played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 39.1% of the time (#28 in the league). Their peak rank was #23 in the league back on 5/5.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is -1.1 which ranks #13 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #12. They are the #12 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #13 ranked team among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is -0.29 (#10 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 10 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 4 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 4-6 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 24.6%. At #12 in the league, they are behind the Mariners by 5.5 points. They have a +0.52 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Royals by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Royals. There is only a 0.38 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Blue Jays are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Blue Jays are playing 11 games, traveling 341 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #30 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Toronto Blue Jays' next game. They are +223 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
Before the season, the Blue Jays were projected for 69.2 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 5/5 they had a 78.7% chance before dropping to 55.7% on 6/12. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 61.5.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Blue Jays' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|31||Biagini, Joe||RP||6-5||235||05/29/1990||4||No College|
|8||Biggio, Cavan||2B||6-2||200||04/11/1995||1||Notre Dame|
|3||Drury, Brandon||3B||6-2||210||08/21/1992||5||No College|
|16||Galvis, Freddy||SS||5-10||185||11/14/1989||8||No College|
|43||Gaviglio, Sam||RP||6-2||195||05/22/1990||3||Oregon State|
|51||Giles, Ken||RP||6-2||205||09/20/1990||6||No College|
|15||Grichuk, Randal||CF||6-1||205||08/13/1991||6||No College|
|27||Guerrero, Vladimir||3B||6-2||250||03/16/1999||1||No College|
|13||Gurriel, Lourdes||LF||6-2||185||10/10/1993||2||No College|
|37||Hernandez, Teoscar||LF||6-2||180||10/15/1992||4||No College|
|46||Hudson, Daniel||RP||6-3||225||03/09/1987||10||No College|
|9||Jansen, Danny||C||6-2||225||04/15/1995||2||No College|
|66||Kingham, Nick||RP||6-5||235||11/08/1991||2||No College|
|64||Law, Derek||RP||6-3||224||09/14/1990||4||No College|
|58||Mayza, Tim||RP||6-3||220||01/15/1992||3||No College|
|28||McKinney, Billy||RF||6-1||205||08/23/1994||2||No College|
|35||Phelps, David||RP||6-2||200||10/09/1986||7||Notre Dame|
|54||Reid-Foley, Sean||SP||6-3||220||08/30/1995||2||No College|
|41||Sanchez, Aaron||SP||6-4||215||07/01/1992||6||No College|
|5||Sogard, Eric||2B||5-10||185||05/22/1986||9||Arizona State|
|44||Tellez, Rowdy||DH||6-4||220||03/16/1995||2||No College|
|57||Thornton, Trent||SP||6-0||175||09/30/1993||1||North Carolina|