|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Rangers are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/13 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 18% on 6/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 12.1%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 5.4%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AL at 3.2% (30/1 odds) and a 1.6% chance of winning it all (60/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Rangers' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
At 43-36 the Rangers are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 36 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 29 impressive wins where they were given
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.42 which ranks #7 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #9 in road games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -0.31 (#11 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 18.1%. At #6 in the league, they are fighting with the Indians for positioning. There is only a -0.11 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the league. They are in a battle with Red Sox in the league. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Red Sox. Their projected wins (5.09) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Rangers are the 16th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rangers are playing 12 games, traveling 13824 miles crossing 9 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the Texas Rangers are -105 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|1||Andrus, Elvis||SS||6-0||200||08/26/1988||11||No College|
|14||Cabrera, Asdrubal||3B||6-0||205||11/13/1985||13||No College|
|5||Calhoun, Willie||LF||5-8||215||11/04/1994||3||No College|
|53||Chavez, Jesse||RP||6-2||175||08/21/1983||12||No College|
|17||Choo, Shin-Soo||DH||5-11||205||07/13/1982||15||No College|
|3||DeShields, Delino||CF||5-9||208||08/16/1992||5||No College|
|50||Federowicz, Tim||C||5-10||215||08/05/1987||8||North Carolina|
|---||Gallo, Joey||6-5||230||11/19/1993||5||No College|
|11||Guzman, Ronald||1B||6-4||225||10/20/1994||2||No College|
|79||Jimenez, A.J.||C||6-0||192||05/01/1990||1||No College|
|57||Jurado, Ariel||RP||6-1||230||01/30/1996||2||No College|
|27||Kelley, Shawn||RP||6-2||237||04/26/1984||11||No College|
|25||Leclerc, Jose||RP||6-0||190||12/19/1993||4||No College|
|35||Lynn, Lance||SP||6-5||255||05/12/1987||8||Ole Miss|
|74||Martin, Brett||RP||6-4||190||No College|
|31||Martin, Chris||RP||6-8||225||06/02/1986||4||No College|
|2||Mathis, Jeff||C||6-0||205||03/31/1983||15||No College|
|30||Mazara, Nomar||RF||6-4||215||04/26/1995||4||No College|
|19||Miller, Shelby||RP||6-3||225||10/10/1990||8||No College|
|12||Odor, Rougned||2B||5-11||195||02/03/1994||6||No College|
|52||Sampson, Adrian||SP||6-2||200||10/07/1991||3||No College|
|38||Santana, Danny||CF||5-11||190||11/07/1990||6||No College|
|45||St. John, Locke||RP||6-2||185||01/31/1993||1||No College|