|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Rays are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.7% chance of winning it all. On 3/29 they had a 1.1% chance before increasing to 12.5% on 6/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 4%. They have a 9.1% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 65% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 9.1% chance of winning the AL (10/1) and a 4.8% chance of winning it all (20/1). In simulations they make the World Series 9.6% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Rays' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 45-34 the Rays are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 44.5 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 27 good wins vs 25 bad losses. They have won 61% of their road games and were expected to win 55%. At home they have a 53% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 58%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 10-12, 45%. The Rays are a good team (in simulations) and won 56.8% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#6 in the league). They have moved up from #12 in the league back on 4/8.
Their average run differential is +1.01 which ranks #4 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #4 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -1.46 (#13 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 13.8%. At #4 in the league, they are behind the Astros by 4.5 points. Their projected wins (5.92) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Indians by 2 points. With a +0.71 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Rays are the 2nd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rays are playing 12 games, traveling 3981 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #7 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Tampa Bay Rays' next game. They are -103 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|1||Adames, Willy||SS||6-0||200||09/02/1995||2||No College|
|43||Brosseau, Michael||3B||5-10||185||03/15/1994||0||No College|
|72||Chirinos, Yonny||SP||6-2||235||12/26/1993||2||No College|
|26||Choi, Ji-Man||1B||6-1||230||05/19/1991||4||No College|
|24||Garcia, Avisail||RF||6-4||240||06/12/1991||8||No College|
|54||Heredia, Guillermo||CF||5-10||180||01/31/1991||4||No College|
|39||Kiermaier, Kevin||CF||6-1||215||04/22/1990||7||No College|
|17||Meadows, Austin||DH||6-3||210||05/03/1995||2||No College|
|50||Morton, Charlie||SP||6-5||235||11/12/1983||12||No College|
|15||Pagan, Emilio||RP||6-3||210||05/07/1991||3||No College|
|29||Pham, Tommy||LF||6-1||215||03/08/1988||6||No College|
|52||Roe, Chaz||RP||6-5||190||10/09/1986||7||No College|
|4||Snell, Blake||SP||6-4||200||12/04/1992||4||No College|
|18||Wendle, Joey||2B||6-1||190||04/26/1990||4||No College|
|44||Wood, Hunter||RP||6-1||165||08/12/1993||3||No College|
|48||Yarbrough, Ryan||RP||6-5||210||12/31/1991||2||No College|
|37||d'Arnaud, Travis||C||6-2||211||02/10/1989||7||No College|