|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 9 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 11.2%. At #7 in the league, they are behind the Phillies by half a point. Their projected wins (4.69) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the D-Backs by 1.5 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the D-Backs. There is only a 0.33 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Cardinals are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cardinals are playing 10 games, traveling 30162 miles crossing 36 time zones. They rank #1 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The St Louis Cardinals' next game is on June 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 40-38 the Cardinals are behind their money line projected win total of 41.1 wins. They have 26 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 22 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 43% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 59% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 56%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (10-10, 50%) is under their expected 55% win percentage. The Cardinals should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.5% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 6/10.
Their average run differential is +0.14 which ranks #7 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #10 in road games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -0.38 (#10 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Cardinals are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 50.7% chance of making the playoffs. On 5/1 they had an 81.1% chance before dropping to 6.1% on 5/30. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 26.9%. They have a 6.3% chance of winning their division. Based on the odds, they have a 10% chance of winning the NL (9/1) and a 5.3% chance of winning it all (18/1).
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Cardinals' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|60||Brebbia, John||RP||6-1||200||05/30/1990||3||No College|
|12||DeJong, Paul||SS||6-0||200||08/02/1993||3||No College|
|22||Flaherty, Jack||SP||6-4||225||10/15/1995||3||No College|
|25||Fowler, Dexter||RF||6-5||205||03/22/1986||12||No College|
|65||Gallegos, Giovanny||RP||6-2||210||08/14/1991||3||No College|
|53||Gant, John||RP||6-4||195||08/06/1992||4||No College|
|46||Goldschmidt, Paul||1B||6-3||225||09/10/1987||9||No College|
|43||Hudson, Dakota||SP||6-5||215||09/15/1994||2||Mississippi State|
|18||Martinez, Carlos||RP||5-11||200||09/21/1991||7||No College|
|38||Martinez, Jose||RF||6-7||230||07/25/1988||4||No College|
|39||Mikolas, Miles||SP||6-5||220||08/23/1988||5||No College|
|21||Miller, Andrew||RP||6-7||205||05/21/1985||14||North Carolina|
|4||Molina, Yadier||C||5-11||210||07/13/1982||16||No College|
|34||Munoz, Yairo||3B||6-0||210||01/23/1995||2||No College|
|23||Ozuna, Marcell||LF||6-1||225||11/12/1990||7||No College|
|62||Ponce de Leon, Daniel||SP||6-3||205||01/16/1992||2||No College|
|52||Wacha, Michael||SP||6-5||215||07/01/1991||7||Texas A&M|
|50||Wainwright, Adam||SP||6-7||220||08/30/1981||14||No College|
|30||Webb, Tyler||RP||6-5||230||07/20/1990||3||South Carolina|
|32||Wieters, Matt||C||6-5||230||05/21/1986||11||Georgia Tech|