|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
Before the season, the Padres were projected for 71.7 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 4/3 they had a 67.5% chance before increasing to 81.2% on 5/26. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 75.4%. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#9 in the conference) and only have a 3% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Padres' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 39-40 the Padres are behind their money line projected win total of 39.6 wins. They have 24 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 17 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 47% of their road games and were expected to win 47%. At home they have a 51% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 53%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-11, 42%) is under their expected 49% win percentage. In simulations where the Padres played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.9% of the time (#20 in the league). They have moved up from #25 in the league back on 4/19.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.41 which ranks #12 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #9. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #9 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #12 in home games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is 0 (#7 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 10 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 11.7%. At #9 in the league, they are fighting with the D-Backs for positioning. With a +0.39 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Nationals by half a point. With a -1.88 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Padres are the most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Padres are playing 11 games, traveling 3198 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #5 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the San Diego Padres' next game. They are -135 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|54||Allen, Logan||SP||6-3||200||No College|
|18||Hedges, Austin||C||6-1||206||08/18/1992||5||No College|
|30||Hosmer, Eric||1B||6-4||225||10/24/1989||9||No College|
|46||Lauer, Eric||SP||6-3||205||06/03/1995||2||Kent State|
|37||Lucchesi, Joey||SP||6-5||204||06/06/1993||2||No College|
|13||Machado, Manny||3B||6-3||185||07/06/1992||8||No College|
|7||Margot, Manuel||CF||5-11||180||09/28/1994||4||No College|
|88||Maton, Phil||RP||6-3||220||03/25/1993||3||Louisiana Tech|
|27||Mejia, Francisco||C||5-10||180||10/27/1995||3||No College|
|4||Myers, Wil||LF||6-3||205||12/10/1990||7||No College|
|22||Naylor, Josh||RF||5-11||247||06/22/1997||1||No College|
|59||Paddack, Chris||SP||6-4||195||No College|
|61||Perdomo, Luis||RP||6-2||185||05/09/1993||4||No College|
|40||Quantrill, Cal||SP||6-3||195||No College|
|10||Renfroe, Hunter||LF||6-1||220||01/28/1992||4||Mississippi State|
|32||Reyes, Franmil||RF||6-5||275||07/07/1995||2||No College|
|34||Stammen, Craig||RP||6-4||230||03/09/1984||10||No College|
|55||Strahm, Matt||SP||6-3||185||11/12/1991||4||No College|
|23||Tatis, Fernando||SS||6-3||185||01/02/1999||1||No College|
|57||Wieck, Brad||RP||6-9||255||10/14/1991||2||No College|
|49||Wisler, Matt||RP||6-3||215||09/12/1992||5||No College|
|39||Yates, Kirby||RP||5-10||210||03/25/1987||6||No College|