San Diego
Padres
Stadium Petco Park
39-40 Overall | NL WEST 4th
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Padres.2423511164.55
Schedule
Regular season
Tue  6/18
vs
Brewers
W4-1
Wed  6/19
vs
Brewers
W8-7
Fri  6/21
@
Pirates
L1-2
Sat  6/22
@
Pirates
L3-6
Sun  6/23
@
Pirates
L / 1110-11
Tue  6/25
@
Orioles
W8-3
Wed  6/26
@
Orioles
3:05pm
Fri  6/28
vs
Cardinals
10:10pm
Sat  6/29
vs
Cardinals
10:10pm
Sun  6/30
vs
Cardinals
4:10pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Padres were projected for 71.7 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 4/3 they had a 67.5% chance before increasing to 81.2% on 5/26. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 75.4%. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#9 in the conference) and only have a 3% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #2 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #13 Easiest

Padres' Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 39-40 the Padres are behind their money line projected win total of 39.6 wins. They have 24 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 17 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 47% of their road games and were expected to win 47%. At home they have a 51% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 53%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-11, 42%) is under their expected 49% win percentage. In simulations where the Padres played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.9% of the time (#20 in the league). They have moved up from #25 in the league back on 4/19.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.41 which ranks #12 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #9. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #9 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #12 in home games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is 0 (#7 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 10 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUN 26
CLOSE GAME
58% @BAL
2294 miles
JUN 28
CLOSE GAME
48% STL
--
JUN 29
CLOSE GAME
55% STL
--
JUN 30
LIKELY LOSS
39% STL
--
JUL 1
CLOSE GAME
54% SF
--
JUL 2
LIKELY WIN
69% SF
--
JUL 3
LIKELY WIN
63% SF
--
JUL 4
LIKELY LOSS
31% @LAD
113 miles
JUL 5
LIKELY LOSS
30% @LAD
-- miles
JUL 6
LIKELY LOSS
33% @LAD
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 11.7%. At #9 in the league, they are fighting with the D-Backs for positioning. With a +0.39 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Nationals by half a point. With a -1.88 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Padres are the most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Padres are playing 11 games, traveling 3198 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #5 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the San Diego Padres' next game. They are -135 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

  • default-player-image
    Scout Staff

    Daily Fantasy Projection: Greg Garcia

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
54 Allen, Logan SP6-3200No College
5 Garcia, Greg 2B6-019008/08/19896Hawaii
18 Hedges, Austin C6-120608/18/19925No College
30 Hosmer, Eric 1B6-422510/24/19899No College
3 Kinsler, Ian 2B6-020006/22/198214Missouri
46 Lauer, Eric SP6-320506/03/19952Kent State
37 Lucchesi, Joey SP6-520406/06/19932No College
13 Machado, Manny 3B6-318507/06/19928No College
7 Margot, Manuel CF5-1118009/28/19944No College
88 Maton, Phil RP6-322003/25/19933Louisiana Tech
27 Mejia, Francisco C5-1018010/27/19953No College
4 Myers, Wil LF6-320512/10/19907No College
22 Naylor, Josh RF5-1124706/22/19971No College
59 Paddack, Chris SP6-4195No College
61 Perdomo, Luis RP6-218505/09/19934No College
40 Quantrill, Cal SP6-3195No College
10 Renfroe, Hunter LF6-122001/28/19924Mississippi State
32 Reyes, Franmil RF6-527507/07/19952No College
34 Stammen, Craig RP6-423003/09/198410No College
55 Strahm, Matt SP6-318511/12/19914No College
23 Tatis, Fernando SS6-318501/02/19991No College
57 Wieck, Brad RP6-925510/14/19912No College
58 Wingenter, Trey RP6-720004/15/19942Auburn
49 Wisler, Matt RP6-321509/12/19925No College
39 Yates, Kirby RP5-1021003/25/19876No College