|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 10 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 3 more 'toss up' games, and 4 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 4-6 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 29.7%. At #6 in the league, they are fighting with the Rockies for positioning. With a +0.63 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Cardinals by half a point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Cardinals. Their projected wins (4.68) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Phillies are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Phillies are playing 11 games, traveling 10656 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Philadelphia Phillies' next game. They are -144 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 41-38 the Phillies are behind their money line projected win total of 41.6 wins. They have 27 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 17 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 43% of their road games and were expected to win 47%. At home they have a 60% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 58%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 8-11, 42%. The Phillies should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.4% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). Their peak rank was #5 in the league back on 4/5.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is 0 which ranks #9 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #6 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #13 in road games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -1.83 (#15 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Phillies are contenders to win the NL, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5% chance of making the World Series. On 5/21 they had a 16.2% chance before dropping to 1.8% on 6/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 2.9%. They have an 8.5% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #6 in the conference and have a 23% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 9.1% chance of winning the NL (10/1) and a 4.8% chance of winning it all (20/1). In simulations they win the World Series 0.9% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Phillies' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|52||Alvarez, Jose||RP||5-11||190||05/06/1989||7||No College|
|23||Bruce, Jay||LF||6-3||230||04/03/1987||12||No College|
|56||Eflin, Zach||SP||6-6||211||04/08/1994||4||No College|
|7||Franco, Maikel||3B||6-1||229||08/26/1992||6||No College|
|41||Garcia, Edgar||RP||6-1||179||10/04/1996||1||No College|
|3||Harper, Bryce||RF||6-3||230||10/16/1992||8||No College|
|16||Hernandez, Cesar||2B||5-10||167||05/23/1990||7||No College|
|17||Hoskins, Rhys||1B||6-4||240||03/17/1993||3||No College|
|50||Neris, Hector||RP||6-2||227||06/14/1989||6||No College|
|12||Nicasio, Juan||RP||6-4||252||08/31/1986||9||No College|
|43||Pivetta, Nick||SP||6-5||210||02/14/1993||3||No College|
|24||Quinn, Roman||CF||5-10||170||05/14/1993||3||No College|
|10||Realmuto, J.T.||C||6-1||213||03/18/1991||6||No College|
|13||Rodriguez, Sean||3B||6-0||200||04/26/1985||12||No College|
|31||Salas, Fernando||RP||6-2||200||05/30/1985||10||No College|
|2||Segura, Jean||SS||5-10||220||03/17/1990||8||No College|
|55||Suarez, Ranger||RP||6-1||210||08/26/1995||2||No College|
|21||Velasquez, Vince||RP||6-3||203||06/07/1992||5||No College|