|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 8 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The Yankees next 8 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 8 games is a record of 4-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 20.1%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Twins by half a point. With a -0.7 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 8 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Astros by 1.5 points. With a -1.66 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 8 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Yankees are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Yankees are playing 9 games, traveling 8996 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #15 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the New York Yankees' next game. They are -270 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 51-28 the Yankees are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 46 wins. They have won 60% of their road games and were expected to win 55%. At home they have a 68% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 60%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (13-8, 62%) is better than their expected 59% win percentage. We have simulated the Yankees playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 62.7% of the time (#3 in the league). They have moved up from #5 in the league back on 5/6.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +1.22 which ranks #3 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #2. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #3 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +2 which ranks them #2 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Yankees are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 15.2% chance of winning it all. On 3/29 they had a 19.1% chance before dropping to 5.1% on 6/15. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 14.4%. Before the start of their 2 game winning streak they were at 11.6%. They have an 82.4% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 36.4% chance of winning the AL (7/4) and a 20% chance of winning it all (4/1). In simulations they make the World Series 27.5% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Yankees' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|53||Britton, Zack||RP||6-1||200||12/22/1987||9||No College|
|85||Cessa, Luis||RP||6-0||208||04/25/1992||4||No College|
|54||Chapman, Aroldis||RP||6-4||218||02/28/1988||10||No College|
|67||Cortes, Nestor||RP||5-11||190||12/10/1994||2||No College|
|30||Encarnacion, Edwin||1B||6-1||230||01/07/1983||15||No College|
|11||Gardner, Brett||CF||5-11||195||08/24/1983||12||No College|
|18||Gregorius, Didi||SS||6-3||205||02/18/1990||8||No College|
|75||Hale, David||RP||6-2||210||09/27/1987||6||No College|
|31||Hicks, Aaron||CF||6-1||205||10/02/1989||7||No College|
|99||Judge, Aaron||RF||6-7||282||04/26/1992||4||Fresno State|
|48||Kahnle, Tommy||RP||6-1||230||08/07/1989||6||No College|
|0||Ottavino, Adam||RP||6-5||246||11/22/1985||9||No College|
|28||Romine, Austin||C||6-1||216||11/22/1988||8||No College|
|52||Sabathia, CC||SP||6-6||300||07/21/1980||19||No College|
|24||Sanchez, Gary||C||6-2||230||12/02/1992||5||No College|
|27||Stanton, Giancarlo||LF||6-6||245||11/08/1989||10||No College|
|19||Tanaka, Masahiro||SP||6-3||218||11/01/1988||6||No College|
|71||Tarpley, Stephen||RP||6-1||220||02/17/1993||2||No College|
|25||Torres, Gleyber||SS||6-1||205||12/13/1996||2||No College|
|29||Urshela, Gio||3B||6-0||215||10/11/1991||4||No College|
|45||Voit, Luke||1B||6-3||255||02/13/1991||3||No College|