|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Mets are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 22.9% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/3 they had a 44.2% chance before dropping to 5% on 6/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 6.1%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 7.9%. They have a 2% chance of winning their division. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1).
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Mets' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 37-43 Mets 'should have' 41 wins. They have 26 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 19 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 17-29 road record is -11% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 34.2% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations, the Mets are a below average team and won 48.5% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#19 in the league). Their peak rank was #11 in the league back on 4/8.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is -0.36 which ranks #11 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #13. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #15 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -1.15 which ranks them #12 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The Mets next 9 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 4-5 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 21.2%. At #13 in the league, they are behind the Pirates by half a point. With a +0.94 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Giants by 2 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Giants. There is only a 0.4 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Mets are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mets are playing 10 games, traveling 273 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the New York Mets' next game. They are +125 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|24||Cano, Robinson||2B||6-0||212||10/22/1982||15||No College|
|30||Conforto, Michael||RF||6-1||215||03/01/1993||5||Oregon State|
|28||Davis, J.D.||3B||6-3||218||04/27/1993||3||No College|
|39||Diaz, Edwin||RP||6-3||165||03/22/1994||4||No College|
|64||Flexen, Chris||RP||6-3||250||07/01/1994||3||No College|
|68||Font, Wilmer||RP||6-4||265||05/24/1990||5||No College|
|91||Gomez, Carlos||CF||6-3||220||12/04/1985||13||No College|
|65||Gsellman, Robert||RP||6-4||205||07/18/1993||4||No College|
|11||Hechavarria, Adeiny||2B||6-0||195||04/15/1989||8||No College|
|12||Lagares, Juan||CF||6-1||215||03/17/1989||7||No College|
|61||Lockett, Walker||SP||6-5||225||05/03/1994||1||No College|
|67||Lugo, Seth||RP||6-4||225||11/17/1989||4||No College|
|32||Matz, Steven||SP||6-2||200||05/29/1991||5||No College|
|6||McNeil, Jeff||LF||6-1||195||04/08/1992||2||No College|
|3||Nido, Tomas||C||6-0||211||04/12/1994||3||No College|
|46||Pounders, Brooks||RP||6-5||265||09/26/1990||4||No College|
|40||Ramos, Wilson||C||6-1||245||08/10/1987||10||No College|
|1||Rosario, Amed||SS||6-2||190||11/20/1995||3||No College|
|22||Smith, Dominic||1B||6-0||226||06/15/1995||3||No College|
|44||Vargas, Jason||SP||6-0||215||02/02/1983||14||No College|
|45||Wheeler, Zack||SP||6-4||195||05/30/1990||5||No College|
|48||deGrom, Jacob||SP||6-4||180||06/19/1988||6||No College|