New York
Mets
Stadium Citi Field
37-43 Overall | NL EAST 4th
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Mets.2553831154.79
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  6/21
@
Cubs
W5-4
Sat  6/22
@
Cubs
W10-2
Sun  6/23
@
Cubs
L3-5
Mon  6/24
@
Phillies
L7-13
Tue  6/25
@
Phillies
L5-7
Wed  6/26
@
Phillies
7:05pm
Thu  6/27
@
Phillies
1:05pm
Fri  6/28
vs
Braves
7:10pm
Sat  6/29
vs
Braves
4:10pm
Sun  6/30
vs
Braves
ESPN7:08pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Mets are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 22.9% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/3 they had a 44.2% chance before dropping to 5% on 6/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 6.1%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 7.9%. They have a 2% chance of winning their division. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1).

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #9 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #8 Toughest

Mets' Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 37-43 Mets 'should have' 41 wins. They have 26 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 19 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 17-29 road record is -11% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 34.2% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations, the Mets are a below average team and won 48.5% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#19 in the league). Their peak rank was #11 in the league back on 4/8.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is -0.36 which ranks #11 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #13. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #15 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -1.15 which ranks them #12 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Mets next 9 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUN 26
CLOSE GAME
42% @PHI
91 miles
JUN 27
CLOSE GAME
41% @PHI
-- miles
JUN 28
CLOSE GAME
48% ATL
91 miles
JUN 29
CLOSE GAME
53% ATL
--
JUN 30
CLOSE GAME
54% ATL
--
JUL 2
LIKELY LOSS
34% NYY
--
JUL 3
CLOSE GAME
42% NYY
--
JUL 5
LIKELY WIN
63% PHI
--
JUL 6
CLOSE GAME
53% PHI
--
JUL 7
LIKELY WIN
62% PHI
--

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 4-5 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 21.2%. At #13 in the league, they are behind the Pirates by half a point. With a +0.94 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Giants by 2 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Giants. There is only a 0.4 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Mets are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mets are playing 10 games, traveling 273 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the New York Mets' next game. They are +125 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
20 Alonso, Pete 1B6-323012/07/19941Florida
24 Cano, Robinson 2B6-021210/22/198215No College
30 Conforto, Michael RF6-121503/01/19935Oregon State
28 Davis, J.D. 3B6-321804/27/19933No College
39 Diaz, Edwin RP6-316503/22/19944No College
64 Flexen, Chris RP6-325007/01/19943No College
68 Font, Wilmer RP6-426505/24/19905No College
21 Frazier, Todd 3B6-322002/12/19869Rutgers
91 Gomez, Carlos CF6-322012/04/198513No College
65 Gsellman, Robert RP6-420507/18/19934No College
11 Hechavarria, Adeiny 2B6-019504/15/19898No College
12 Lagares, Juan CF6-121503/17/19897No College
61 Lockett, Walker SP6-522505/03/19941No College
67 Lugo, Seth RP6-422511/17/19894No College
32 Matz, Steven SP6-220005/29/19915No College
6 McNeil, Jeff LF6-119504/08/19922No College
3 Nido, Tomas C6-021104/12/19943No College
72 Nogosek, Stephen RP6-118501/11/19951Oregon
46 Pounders, Brooks RP6-526509/26/19904No College
40 Ramos, Wilson C6-124508/10/198710No College
1 Rosario, Amed SS6-219011/20/19953No College
22 Smith, Dominic 1B6-022606/15/19953No College
44 Vargas, Jason SP6-021502/02/198314No College
45 Wheeler, Zack SP6-419505/30/19905No College
48 deGrom, Jacob SP6-418006/19/19886No College