|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Brewers next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (23% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 14.1%. At #4 in the league, they are behind the Cubs by one point. Their projected wins (5.84) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Rockies by one point. With a +1.78 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Brewers are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Brewers are playing 12 games, traveling 5296 miles crossing 14 time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Milwaukee Brewers' next game is on June 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 42-37 the Brewers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 41.6 wins. They have 23 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 20 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 46% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 60% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 56%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 8-11, 42%. The Brewers are a good team (in simulations) and won 55% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#9 in the league). Their peak rank was #4 in the league back on 4/8.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -0.08 which ranks #10 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #4. They are the #8 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #10 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is -1.33 (#14 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Brewers are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 4.2% chance of winning it all. On 3/19 they had a 3.6% chance before increasing to 11.5% on 6/17. Their current chances are at 4.4%. They have a 30.2% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 66% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the NL (7/1) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1). In simulations they make the World Series 9.7% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Brewers' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|24||Aguilar, Jesus||1B||6-3||285||06/30/1990||6||No College|
|43||Albers, Matt||RP||6-1||260||01/20/1983||14||No College|
|3||Arcia, Orlando||SS||6-0||181||08/04/1994||4||No College|
|8||Braun, Ryan||LF||6-2||207||11/17/1983||13||Miami (FL)|
|6||Cain, Lorenzo||CF||6-2||205||04/13/1986||10||No College|
|45||Chacin, Jhoulys||SP||6-3||255||01/07/1988||11||No College|
|58||Claudio, Alex||RP||6-3||160||01/31/1992||6||No College|
|27||Davies, Zach||SP||6-0||165||02/07/1993||5||No College|
|16||Gamel, Ben||LF||5-11||187||05/17/1992||4||No College|
|10||Grandal, Yasmani||C||6-1||220||11/08/1988||8||Miami (FL)|
|41||Guerra, Junior||RP||5-11||234||01/16/1985||5||No College|
|71||Hader, Josh||RP||6-3||177||04/07/1994||3||No College|
|37||Houser, Adrian||RP||6-3||216||02/02/1993||3||No College|
|32||Jeffress, Jeremy||RP||6-0||205||09/21/1987||10||No College|
|11||Moustakas, Mike||2B||6-0||211||09/11/1988||9||No College|
|51||Peralta, Freddy||SP||5-11||194||06/04/1996||2||No College|
|14||Perez, Hernan||2B||6-1||214||03/26/1991||8||No College|
|9||Pina, Manny||C||5-11||216||06/05/1987||6||No College|
|21||Shaw, Travis||3B||6-3||225||04/16/1990||5||Kent State|
|7||Thames, Eric||1B||5-11||216||11/10/1986||5||No College|
|56||Wilkerson, Aaron||RP||6-2||230||05/24/1989||3||No College|
|53||Woodruff, Brandon||SP||6-4||232||02/10/1993||3||Mississippi State|
|22||Yelich, Christian||RF||6-3||200||12/05/1991||7||No College|