|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The forecast for their next 9 games is very good. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 6-3 (28% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 13.3%. Their chances of winning their next 9 are 2.2%. At #3 in the league, they are behind the Yankees by 1.5 points. With a +1.66 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Rays by 4.5 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rays. Their projected wins (6) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Astros are the 7th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Astros are playing 10 games, traveling 3524 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #18 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Houston Astros' next game is on June 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 50-30 the Astros are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 48.2 wins. They have 23 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 20 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 54% of their road games and were expected to win 58%. At home they have a 72% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 63%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 9-10, 47%. The Astros perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 62.8% of the time (#2 in the league). Their peak rank was #1 in the league back on 5/22.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +1.24 which ranks #2 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is 0 (#8 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Astros are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 18.9% chance of winning it all. On 4/8 they had an 11.5% chance before increasing to 23% on 5/23. Their current chances are at 18.8%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 97.4%. Based on the odds, they have a 28.6% chance of winning the AL (5/2) and a 16.7% chance of winning it all (5/1). In simulations they make the World Series 33.3% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
Astros' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|27||Altuve, Jose||2B||5-6||164||05/06/1990||9||No College|
|44||Alvarez, Yordan||DH||6-5||242||06/27/1997||1||No College|
|23||Brantley, Michael||LF||6-2||210||05/15/1987||11||No College|
|28||Chirinos, Robinson||C||6-1||210||06/05/1984||8||No College|
|47||Devenski, Chris||RP||6-3||209||11/13/1990||4||No College|
|10||Gurriel, Yuli||1B||6-0||202||06/09/1984||4||No College|
|39||James, Josh||RP||6-3||222||03/08/1993||2||No College|
|6||Marisnick, Jake||CF||6-4||228||03/30/1991||7||No College|
|31||McHugh, Collin||SP||6-2||192||06/19/1987||8||No College|
|20||Miley, Wade||SP||6-2||195||11/13/1986||9||No College|
|54||Osuna, Roberto||RP||6-2||230||02/07/1995||5||No College|
|41||Peacock, Brad||SP||6-1||208||02/02/1988||8||No College|
|55||Pressly, Ryan||RP||6-2||210||12/15/1988||7||No College|
|22||Reddick, Josh||RF||6-2||195||02/19/1987||11||No College|
|30||Rondon, Hector||RP||6-3||230||02/26/1988||7||No College|
|12||Stassi, Max||C||5-10||200||03/15/1991||7||No College|
|26||Straw, Myles||CF||5-10||179||10/17/1994||2||No College|
|59||Valdez, Framber||RP||5-11||222||11/19/1993||2||No College|
|35||Verlander, Justin||SP||6-5||225||02/20/1983||15||No College|
|13||White, Tyler||1B||5-11||221||10/29/1990||4||No College|