|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 10 games is not good. They are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 10 games.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 3-7 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 16.6%. With a -0.97 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Orioles by 6 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Orioles. Their projected wins (3.09) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Tigers are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Tigers are playing 12 games, traveling 1904 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #29 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the Detroit Tigers are -110 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 26-49 Tigers 'should have' 30 wins. They have 24 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 20 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have come up especially short at home. Their 11-26- home record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 5 in a row they have a 36% chance of seeing that extend to 7 straight. In simulations where the Tigers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 31.2% of the time (#30 in the league). Their peak rank was #27 in the league back on 4/24.
Their average run differential is -1.92 which ranks #14 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #14 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is -2.91.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
Before the season, the Tigers were projected for 63.3 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 5/9 they had a 66.7% chance before dropping to 50.2% on 5/24. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 52.2.
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Tigers' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|50||Adams, Austin||RP||5-11||200||08/19/1986||4||No College|
|58||Alcantara, Victor||RP||6-2||190||04/03/1993||3||No College|
|48||Boyd, Matthew||SP||6-3||234||02/02/1991||5||Oregon State|
|24||Cabrera, Miguel||DH||6-4||249||04/18/1983||17||No College|
|9||Castellanos, Nicholas||RF||6-4||203||03/04/1992||7||No College|
|30||Castro, Harold||2B||5-10||151||11/30/1993||2||No College|
|67||Cisnero, Jose||RP||6-3||245||04/11/1989||3||No College|
|45||Farmer, Buck||RP||6-4||232||02/20/1991||6||Georgia Tech|
|28||Goodrum, Niko||SS||6-3||198||02/28/1992||3||No College|
|61||Greene, Shane||RP||6-4||197||11/17/1988||6||No College|
|36||Hardy, Blaine||RP||6-2||218||03/14/1987||6||No College|
|77||Jimenez, Joe||RP||6-3||272||01/17/1995||3||No College|
|44||Norris, Daniel||SP||6-2||185||04/25/1993||6||No College|
|63||Ramirez, Nick||RP||6-4||232||08/01/1989||1||No College|
|60||Rodriguez, Ronny||SS||6-0||180||04/17/1992||2||No College|
|68||Stumpf, Daniel||RP||6-2||208||01/04/1991||4||No College|
|37||Wilson, Bobby||C||6-0||226||04/08/1983||10||No College|
|27||Zimmermann, Jordan||SP||6-2||225||05/23/1986||11||No College|