|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Indians are World Series contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 4.3% chance of winning it all. On 3/24 they had a 5.2% chance before dropping to 0.1% on 5/28. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 1.6%. They have a 16.1% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 49% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AL at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1). In simulations they make the World Series 4.3% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
Indians' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 43-36 the Indians are behind their money line projected win total of 44.4 wins. They have 29 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 22 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 51% of their road games and were expected to win 53%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 59%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 14-6 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 11.6 wins. The Indians should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.9% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 4/14.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.28 which ranks #8 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #8 ranked team among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +2.08 (#1 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 8 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 8 games is generally good. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 8 games is a record of 5-3 (29% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 17.6%. Their chances of winning their next 8 are 3.2%. At #5 in the league, they are behind the Rays by 2 points. With a -0.71 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 8 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Rangers in the league. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rangers. There is only a 0.11 advantage in projected wins over their next 8 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Indians are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Indians are playing 9 games, traveling 6904 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Cleveland Indians' next game. They are -218 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|10||Bauers, Jake||LF||6-1||195||10/06/1995||2||No College|
|57||Bieber, Shane||SP||6-3||195||05/31/1995||2||No College|
|40||Bradley, Bobby||1B||6-1||225||05/29/1996||1||No College|
|90||Cimber, Adam||RP||6-4||180||08/15/1990||2||No College|
|36||Clippard, Tyler||RP||6-3||200||02/14/1985||13||No College|
|34||Cole, A.J.||RP||6-5||238||01/05/1992||5||No College|
|46||Edwards, Jon||RP||6-5||235||01/08/1988||4||No College|
|33||Hand, Brad||RP||6-3||220||03/20/1990||9||No College|
|22||Kipnis, Jason||2B||5-11||195||04/03/1987||9||Arizona State|
|12||Lindor, Francisco||SS||5-11||190||11/14/1993||5||No College|
|8||Luplow, Jordan||RF||6-1||195||09/26/1993||3||Fresno State|
|35||Mercado, Oscar||LF||6-2||175||12/16/1994||1||No College|
|30||Naquin, Tyler||RF||6-2||190||04/24/1991||4||Texas A&M|
|49||Olson, Tyler||RP||6-3||205||10/02/1989||5||No College|
|39||Perez, Oliver||RP||6-3||225||08/15/1981||17||No College|
|55||Perez, Roberto||C||5-11||225||12/23/1988||6||No College|
|65||Plesac, Zach||SP||6-2||200||No College|
|11||Ramirez, Jose||3B||5-9||190||09/17/1992||7||No College|
|41||Santana, Carlos||1B||5-11||210||04/08/1986||10||No College|