|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 9 games is not good. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 3 more 'toss up' games, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 4-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 17%. At #11 in the league, they are behind the Nationals by 1.5 points. With a -2.54 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Pirates in the league. With a +0.71 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Reds are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Reds are playing 10 games, traveling 1882 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Cincinnati Reds' next game is on June 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 36-41 the Reds are behind their money line projected win total of 36.7 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 28 good wins vs 15 bad losses. They have won 41% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 53% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 52%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 29.7% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Reds played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.6% of the time (#21 in the league). They have moved up from #26 in the league back on 4/23.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.57 which ranks #3 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #6 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +1 which ranks them #4 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
Before the season, the Reds were projected for 66.5 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 4/9 they had a 60.6% chance before increasing to 78.6% on 6/1. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 75.6%. The playoffs are not likely with their 2.4% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Reds' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|16||Barnhart, Tucker||C||5-11||192||01/07/1991||6||No College|
|67||Bowman, Matt||RP||6-0||185||05/31/1991||4||No College|
|58||Castillo, Luis||SP||6-2||190||12/12/1992||3||No College|
|22||Dietrich, Derek||2B||6-0||212||07/18/1989||7||Georgia Tech|
|32||Duke, Zach||RP||6-2||210||04/19/1983||15||No College|
|6||Ervin, Phillip||LF||5-10||207||07/15/1992||3||No College|
|50||Garrett, Amir||RP||6-5||228||05/03/1992||3||No College|
|37||Hernandez, David||RP||6-3||245||05/13/1985||10||No College|
|48||Hughes, Jared||RP||6-7||240||07/04/1985||9||No College|
|4||Iglesias, Jose||SS||5-11||185||01/05/1990||8||No College|
|26||Iglesias, Raisel||RP||6-2||188||01/04/1990||5||No College|
|21||Lorenzen, Michael||RP||6-3||217||01/04/1992||5||No College|
|30||Mahle, Tyler||SP||6-3||210||09/29/1994||3||No College|
|9||Peraza, Jose||2B||6-0||196||04/30/1994||5||No College|
|66||Puig, Yasiel||RF||6-2||240||12/07/1990||7||No College|
|55||Stephenson, Robert||RP||6-3||215||02/24/1993||4||No College|
|7||Suarez, Eugenio||3B||5-11||213||07/18/1991||6||No College|
|19||Votto, Joey||1B||6-2||220||09/10/1983||13||No College|
|33||Winker, Jesse||LF||6-3||215||08/17/1993||3||No College|