Cincinnati
Reds
Stadium Great American Ball Park
36-41 Overall | NL CENTRAL 4th
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Reds.2353351073.63
Schedule
Regular season
Wed  6/19
vs
Astros
W3-2
Thu  6/20
@
Brewers
W7-1
Fri  6/21
@
Brewers
W11-7
Sat  6/22
@
Brewers
L5-6
Sun  6/23
@
Brewers
L5-7
Tue  6/25
@
Angels
L1-5
Wed  6/26
@
Angels
8:07pm
Fri  6/28
vs
Cubs
7:10pm
Sat  6/29
vs
Cubs
4:10pm
Sun  6/30
vs
Cubs
1:10pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 9 games is not good. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 3 more 'toss up' games, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUN 26
CLOSE GAME
47% @LAA
1882 miles
JUN 28
CLOSE GAME
44% CHC
--
JUN 29
CLOSE GAME
46% CHC
--
JUN 30
LIKELY LOSS
32% CHC
--
JUL 1
CLOSE GAME
58% MIL
--
JUL 2
CLOSE GAME
53% MIL
--
JUL 3
CLOSE GAME
49% MIL
--
JUL 4
CLOSE GAME
44% MIL
--
JUL 6
LIKELY LOSS
37% CLE
--
JUL 7
CLOSE GAME
51% CLE
--

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 4-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 17%. At #11 in the league, they are behind the Nationals by 1.5 points. With a -2.54 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Pirates in the league. With a +0.71 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Reds are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Reds are playing 10 games, traveling 1882 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Cincinnati Reds' next game is on June 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 36-41 the Reds are behind their money line projected win total of 36.7 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 28 good wins vs 15 bad losses. They have won 41% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 53% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 52%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 29.7% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Reds played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.6% of the time (#21 in the league). They have moved up from #26 in the league back on 4/23.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.57 which ranks #3 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #6 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +1 which ranks them #4 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Reds were projected for 66.5 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 4/9 they had a 60.6% chance before increasing to 78.6% on 6/1. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 75.6%. The playoffs are not likely with their 2.4% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #2 Toughest

Reds' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
16 Barnhart, Tucker C5-1119201/07/19916No College
67 Bowman, Matt RP6-018505/31/19914No College
12 Casali, Curt C6-323511/09/19886Vanderbilt
58 Castillo, Luis SP6-219012/12/19923No College
28 DeSclafani, Anthony SP6-119504/18/19905Florida
22 Dietrich, Derek 2B6-021207/18/19897Georgia Tech
32 Duke, Zach RP6-221004/19/198315No College
6 Ervin, Phillip LF5-1020707/15/19923No College
52 Farmer, Kyle 2B6-021408/17/19903Georgia
50 Garrett, Amir RP6-522805/03/19923No College
54 Gray, Sonny SP5-1019211/07/19897Vanderbilt
37 Hernandez, David RP6-324505/13/198510No College
48 Hughes, Jared RP6-724007/04/19859No College
4 Iglesias, Jose SS5-1118501/05/19908No College
26 Iglesias, Raisel RP6-218801/04/19905No College
21 Lorenzen, Michael RP6-321701/04/19925No College
30 Mahle, Tyler SP6-321009/29/19943No College
9 Peraza, Jose 2B6-019604/30/19945No College
66 Puig, Yasiel RF6-224012/07/19907No College
35 Roark, Tanner SP6-224010/05/19867Illinois
15 Senzel, Nick CF6-120506/29/19951Tennessee
55 Stephenson, Robert RP6-321502/24/19934No College
7 Suarez, Eugenio 3B5-1121307/18/19916No College
19 Votto, Joey 1B6-222009/10/198313No College
33 Winker, Jesse LF6-321508/17/19933No College