|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 12.7%. At #3 in the league, they are behind the Braves by 3.5 points. They have a +0.56 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Brewers by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Brewers. Their projected wins (5.81) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Cubs are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cubs are playing 11 games, traveling 4862 miles crossing 14 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Chicago Cubs' next game. They are -123 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 43-36 the Cubs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 41.8 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 18 good wins but they also have 18 bad losses. They have won 42% of their road games and were expected to win 48%. At home they have a 65% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 57%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (11-10, 52%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Cubs are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.9% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). Their peak rank was #3 in the league back on 5/6.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +0.8 which ranks #2 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #5 in road games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +0.38 (#6 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Cubs are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 7.8% chance of winning it all. On 4/15 they had a 3.1% chance before increasing to 16% on 5/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 7.3%. They have a 62.9% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 86% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the NL (5/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the World Series 17.7% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Cubs' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|5||Almora, Albert||CF||6-2||190||04/16/1994||4||No College|
|73||Alzolay, Adbert||RP||6-1||218||03/01/1995||1||No College|
|9||Baez, Javier||SS||6-0||190||12/01/1992||6||No College|
|33||Barnette, Tony||RP||6-1||190||11/09/1983||4||Arizona State|
|13||Bote, David||3B||6-1||210||04/07/1993||2||No College|
|29||Brach, Brad||RP||6-4||205||04/12/1986||9||No College|
|17||Bryant, Kris||3B||6-5||230||01/04/1992||5||No College|
|7||Caratini, Victor||C||6-1||215||08/17/1993||3||No College|
|32||Chatwood, Tyler||RP||5-11||200||12/16/1989||8||No College|
|41||Cishek, Steve||RP||6-6||217||06/18/1986||10||No College|
|40||Contreras, Willson||C||6-1||212||05/13/1992||4||No College|
|11||Darvish, Yu||SP||6-5||216||08/16/1986||7||No College|
|3||Descalso, Daniel||2B||5-10||200||10/19/1986||10||No College|
|2||Gonzalez, Carlos||RF||6-1||220||10/17/1985||12||No College|
|35||Hamels, Cole||SP||6-4||205||12/27/1983||14||No College|
|22||Heyward, Jason||RF||6-5||240||08/09/1989||10||No College|
|20||Kintzler, Brandon||RP||6-0||194||08/01/1984||10||No College|
|34||Lester, Jon||SP||6-4||240||01/07/1984||14||No College|
|38||Montgomery, Mike||RP||6-5||215||07/01/1989||5||No College|
|62||Quintana, Jose||SP||6-1||220||01/24/1989||8||No College|
|44||Rizzo, Anthony||1B||6-3||240||08/08/1989||9||No College|
|27||Russell, Addison||2B||6-0||200||01/23/1994||5||No College|
|56||Ryan, Kyle||RP||6-5||215||09/25/1991||5||No College|
|46||Strop, Pedro||RP||6-1||220||06/13/1985||11||No College|