|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Braves are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.2% chance of winning it all. On 5/15 they had a 0.3% chance before increasing to 5% on 6/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 4.6%. They have a 59.3% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 79% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the NL (5/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the World Series 11% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Braves' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 47-33 the Braves are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 43 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 24 impressive wins where they were given
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.56 which ranks #4 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #2. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #5 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +1.69 which ranks them #2 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 21.9%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Dodgers by 7.5 points. With a -1.53 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Cubs by 3.5 points. With a -0.56 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Braves are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Braves are playing 11 games, traveling 6321 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #19 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Atlanta Braves' next game. They are +107 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|13||Acuna, Ronald||CF||6-0||180||12/18/1997||2||No College|
|1||Albies, Ozzie||2B||5-8||165||01/07/1997||3||No College|
|50||Blevins, Jerry||RP||6-6||190||09/06/1983||13||No College|
|17||Camargo, Johan||3B||6-0||195||12/13/1993||3||No College|
|8||Culberson, Charlie||LF||6-1||200||04/10/1989||7||No College|
|25||Flowers, Tyler||C||6-4||260||01/24/1986||11||No College|
|5||Freeman, Freddie||1B||6-5||220||09/12/1989||10||No College|
|54||Fried, Max||SP||6-4||190||01/18/1994||3||No College|
|77||Jackson, Luke||RP||6-2||210||08/24/1991||5||No College|
|14||Joyce, Matt||RF||6-2||200||08/03/1984||12||No College|
|22||Markakis, Nick||RF||6-1||210||11/17/1983||14||No College|
|16||McCann, Brian||C||6-3||215||02/20/1984||15||No College|
|33||Minter, A.J.||RP||6-0||215||09/02/1993||3||Texas A&M|
|15||Newcomb, Sean||RP||6-5||255||06/12/1993||3||No College|
|27||Riley, Austin||LF||6-3||240||04/02/1997||1||No College|
|40||Soroka, Michael||SP||6-4||195||No College|
|38||Swarzak, Anthony||RP||6-4||215||09/10/1985||10||No College|
|49||Teheran, Julio||SP||6-2||205||01/27/1991||9||No College|
|32||Tomlin, Josh||RP||6-1||190||10/19/1984||10||Texas Tech|
|62||Toussaint, Touki||RP||6-3||215||06/20/1996||2||No College|
|71||Webb, Jacob||RP||6-2||210||08/15/1993||1||No College|