|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 9 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 4-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 6 or more are 21.4%. At #8 in the league, they are behind the Cardinals by 1.5 points. With a -0.33 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Padres in the league. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Padres. There is only a -0.39 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the D-Backs are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the D-Backs are playing 10 games, traveling 6656 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #23 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Arizona Diamondbacks' next game. They are +126 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 40-41 the D-Backs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 39 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 31 good wins vs 15 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 24-19- road record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (10-10, 50%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The D-Backs should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.8% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#14 in the league). They have moved up from #18 in the league back on 3/27.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.51 which ranks #5 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #8. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #9 in home games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -1.31 (#13 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The D-Backs are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 13% chance of making the playoffs. On 3/30 they had an 8.8% chance before increasing to 64.2% on 5/5. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 17.7%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
D-Backs' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|35||Andriese, Matt||RP||6-2||225||08/28/1989||5||No College|
|25||Bradley, Archie||RP||6-4||225||08/10/1992||5||No College|
|40||Chafin, Andrew||RP||6-2||225||06/17/1990||6||Kent State|
|45||Clarke, Taylor||SP||6-4||200||05/13/1993||1||No College|
|1||Dyson, Jarrod||CF||5-10||165||08/15/1984||10||No College|
|5||Escobar, Eduardo||3B||5-10||185||01/05/1989||9||No College|
|21||Greinke, Zack||SP||6-2||200||10/21/1983||16||No College|
|66||Hirano, Yoshihisa||RP||6-1||185||03/08/1984||2||No College|
|56||Holland, Greg||RP||5-10||215||11/20/1985||9||No College|
|10||Jones, Adam||RF||6-2||215||08/01/1985||14||No College|
|14||Joseph, Caleb||C||6-3||180||06/18/1986||6||No College|
|18||Kelly, Carson||C||6-2||220||07/14/1994||4||No College|
|29||Kelly, Merrill||SP||6-2||190||10/14/1988||1||Arizona State|
|2||Leyba, Domingo||2B||5-11||160||09/11/1995||1||No College|
|16||Locastro, Tim||LF||6-1||200||07/14/1992||3||No College|
|50||Lopez, Yoan||RP||6-3||185||01/02/1993||2||No College|
|4||Marte, Ketel||2B||6-1||165||10/12/1993||5||No College|
|30||McFarland, T.J.||RP||6-3||220||06/08/1989||7||No College|
|6||Peralta, David||LF||6-1||210||08/14/1987||6||No College|
|38||Ray, Robbie||SP||6-2||195||10/01/1991||6||No College|
|19||Swihart, Blake||RF||6-1||200||04/03/1992||5||No College|
|15||Vargas, Ildemaro||2B||6-0||170||07/16/1991||3||No College|
|53||Walker, Christian||1B||6-0||220||03/28/1991||5||South Carolina|